Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Saturday, August 31, 2019

Polling-Related Adjustments 2019, Round 2

This post reviews polls of smaller areas than the six standard polling regions (BC, AB, SK/MB, ON, QC, Atlantic), and polls providing breakdowns of smaller areas. Resulting adjustments to the model are indicated in bold. You can view the initial round of polling-related adjustments here.

Update Sept. 5: Justason's Vancouver Granville and Vancouver polls added These polls were sponsored by the Wilson-Raybould campaign, and have therefore been removed.

Update Sept. 8: Abacus' ON breakdown added.

Update Sept. 10: MQO's summer polls added, methodology for Atlantic adjustments slightly revised.

Update Sept. 11: Forum's QC poll and 4 Mainstreet riding polls in QC added.

Update Sept. 12: QC breakdown from Léger's 9/6-9 national poll added.

Update Sept. 18: Added comment about regional adjustment applied to Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier.

I. Regional Polls

Atlantic Canada
MQO Summer 2019 polls (7/25-31 NL7/31-8/6 PEI8/6-14 NB, 8/20-27 NS)
Narrative's 7/31-8/22 poll
These polls largely confirm the initial round of adjustments. The biggest tweak is an increase for the CONs in PEI, which is useful for them as PEI is currently unusually competitive. The updated adjustments are (note: may be re-updated when the MQO NS numbers come out):
NL: CON +9.5, NDP -1.5, LIB -2.5, GRN -5.5
NS: CON -3, NDP +3, LIB -1.5, GRN +1.5
NB: CON -3.5, NDP -2, LIB +4.5, GRN +1
PE: CON +4, NDP -3, LIB -5, GRN +4
The final set of numbers from MQO shows a widening LIB lead in NS, to a size similar to what Narrative shows. This caused a slight change in NS adjustments. At the same time, I have reviewed the adjustments methodology to put more weights on recent polls and better account for differences in the size of electorate between ridings - this caused changes favouring the CONs in NL and hurting the LIBs in PE:
NL: CON +11, NDP -2.5, LIB -3.5, GRN -5
NS: CON -3.5, NDP +3, LIB -1, GRN +1.5
PE: CON +4, NDP -1.5, LIB -7, GRN +4.5

Forum's 8/26-29 poll
Léger's 8/27-29 poll
These polls large confirm the first round of adjustments: the CONs are gaining disproportionately outside the Quebec City and Montreal CMAs, and are likely not gaining at all in Quebec City. As the first round was cautious, I have significantly increased the magnitude of these adjustments, which are now:
Quebec City CMA: CON -7 -9, NDP +0.5, LIB +3 (1.5 was typo), GRN -1, BQ +0.5
Montreal CMA: CON -1 (excluding far suburbs), NDP +0.5 (excluding far suburbs), LIB +1, GRN +0.5 (Island of Montreal only), BQ -0.5
Rest of Quebec North: CON +3 (3.5 was typo), NDP -0.5 -1, LIB -2 (-2.5 was typo), BQ +0.5
Rest of Quebec South: CON +3.5 (3 was typo) +4, NDP -0.5, LIB -2.5 (-2 was typo), GRN -0.5, BQ +0.5
(Salaberry--Suroît is mostly outside of Montreal CMA but shares some characteristics with it. Since the Montreal CMA and Rest of QC S adjustments go in opposite directions, I have left this riding unadjusted. Moreover, due to the large difference between Quebec City and Rest of QC North adjustments, I am computing the adjustment in Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île-d'Orléans--Charlevoix and Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier according to their rough population distribution: 55% and 58% respectively in Quebec City CMA, 45% and 42% outside.)
This can help the Tories make gains outside the Quebec City area, but the two Liberal seats in Quebec City are now unlikely to flip. In fact, the projection for Québec is now within 2 points for all parties of the riding poll published by Mainstreet in July. I had refrained from making an adjustment based on the riding poll because I through the regional adjustment might end up doing the job, and that's exactly what happened.

Léger's 9/6-9 poll
Further tweaks to the adjustment in bold:
Quebec City CMA: CON -10, NDP +0.5, LIB +3.5, BQ +0.5
Montreal CMA: CON -1 (excluding far suburbs), NDP +1.5 (Island of Montreal), +1 (near suburbs), LIB +1 (Island of Montreal), +0.5 (near suburbs), GRN +0.5 (Island of Montreal only), BQ -0.5
Rest of Quebec North: CON +3.5, NDP -1.5, LIB -1.5, BQ +0.5
Rest of Quebec South: CON +4, NDP -1, LIB -2, GRN -0.5, BQ +0.5

Corbett Communications' 8/11-13 poll
Update Sept. 8: Abacus' 8/23-29 ON breakdown
Nothing out of the ordinary here - no resulting sub-provincial adjustment. There is no huge deviation from expectations based on provincial averages. However, now that we have two pollsters providing a breakdown, I am comfortable making adjustments based on moderate deviations where there is some agreement, namely that the NDP does better than expected in the Toronto suburbs (but, per Corbett's finer breakdown, not in Hamilton-Niagara) and Eastern ON outside Ottawa, but worse than expected in the North and Southwest:
Toronto CMA outside 416: CON -0.5, NDP +2, LIB -0.5, GRN -1
Southwest: CON +1.5, NDP -2, GRN +0.5
North: NDP -1.5, GRN +1.5
East outside Ottawa: CON -3, NDP +3, LIB -0.5, GRN +0.5
I have also made a minor change to the adjustment for the 7 central Toronto ridings to CON +2, NDP -5, LIB +2.5, GRN +0.5 (previously +2/-5/+3/0).
All these adjustments are fairly cautious - very roughly half the size suggested by the polls - to account for the possibility that some of the apparent effect might be due to random variation. Because they are broadly consistent with the Corbett poll, for the purposes of retroactive computations to produce trends, these adjustments will be deemed to have been made in response to that poll.

Campaign Research's 8/9-13 poll
EKOS' 8/20-22 poll
Update Sept. 1: EKOS' 8/27-29 poll
Both All of these suggest that the NDP is falling a lot more in SK than in MB, and that, conversely, the CONs and GRNs* are rising much more in SK than in MB. However, due to the very small sample sizes (there were part of national polls) and the ongoing provincial election in MB, I am not making any adjustments for now.
*GRNs was a typo - the numbers didn't show that, even before the update.

Justason Market Intelligence's 9/3 poll
This poll is broadly in line with the current projection for the City of Vancouver (unlike the April poll by Justason, which had some very strange numbers and a very small sample). The Tories are a bit lower than expected, and the GRNs a bit higher. Justason overestimated the BC Greens in the last provincial election, so I'm going to hold off on any adjustments.

II. Riding Polls (by Mainstreet unless otherwise noted)

Note: A riding poll will result in a model adjustment ONLY IF it shows a substantial deviation from regional swing and/or it is in a riding with unusual factors. Most riding polls will therefore be ignored: they generally did not help much in 2015.

Victoria, 8/9-10
This poll did not come as a huge surprise to the model because it takes into account that, in 2015, the Green vote was inflated and the Liberal vote was depressed due to the Liberal candidate dropping out (but too late to be removed from the ballot). In fact, there are several ways to make the adjustment, and I picked one of the relatively cautious ones; the poll suggests that my caution was unwarranted. Therefore, rather than making this a poll-based adjustment, I amended the baseline adjustment (as previously noted in the model post) by CON +1.3 (thus cancelling the CON adjustment), NDP -2.8 (to -6.5), LIB +6.5 (to +22.8), GRN -5 (to -16.3). This shifts all numbers toward (but not quite all the way to) the poll.

Windsor West, 8/21
Because this poll essentially guides the Sandra Pupatello adjustment rather than provides information about a differential evolution of the riding per se, it leads to a baseline adjustment. Details were provided in the model post.

Vancouver Granville, Mainstreet 8/27-28 and Justason 8/28-30
The Mainstreet poll isn't very different from the May Vancouver Granville poll by Mainstreet, if you compare the party figures from the May poll (which are the ones I used) to the candidate figures in this one (which are more relevant now). Similarly, Justason continues to see a moderate lead for Wilson-Raybould, like in its April poll. The adjustment is amended from CON -10, NDP -8, LIB -10, GRN -2 to CON -11, NDP -8, LIB -9 -9.5, GRN -2 -1.5 (update due to contemporaneous Léger and EKOS polls subsequently published) CON -13, NDP -8, LIB -10.5, GRN -1.

Beloeil--Chambly, 9/3
This is almost exactly as the model expects!

Trois-Rivières, 9/3
LIBs and BQ a bit higher than the model expected, and other parties a bit lower, but not enough to warrant an adjustment.

Sherbrooke, 9/3
LIB much higher than expected. A cautious adjustment for now: CON -4, NDP -2, LIB +6.

Louis-Hébert, 9/3
Almost exactly as the model expects for LIB, GRN, NDP. CON a bit lower and BQ a bit higher than expected, but not enough to warrant an adjustment.

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