Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Mapped Projection Update: Nanos Poll Ending 9/6

The following polls have been added to the model:
Nanos' national poll ending 9/6 (current weight among national polls: 3%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.
Update Sept. 10: The full regional breakdown for EKOS' 7/23-25 poll has also been added. There is no effect on this post, though some of regional polling averages changed by 0.1 point.

Verbatim from last week's Nanos update:
CTV has posted some national Nanos numbers. Their inclusion in the average has little effect because:
- they are conducted over 4 weeks, and I use poll midpoint dates,
- their samples sizes are small, and
- only the national numbers are available, so they do not impact differences between regions.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 7)
LIB - 165.6 (35.3%)
CON - 144.0 (36.4%)
NDP - 14.0 (11.2%)
BQ - 9.8 (4.1%)
GRN - 3.5 (9.7%)

PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.4

If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

No seat lead changed hands. Here's a map of ridings currently projected ahead and potential seating plan (before Speaker election).

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