Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, September 20, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos and Mainstreet 9/17-19

The following polls have been added to the model:
Nanos' 9/17-19 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 18%)
Mainstreet's 9/17-19 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 34%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.
Update Sept. 20: Also adding the full regional breakdown from the Léger 9/13-17 poll.

These polls show a small fall for the Liberals - consistent with a small amount of noise, so there's no evidence yet that the "blackface" episode has affected voting intentions. The Tories are also down, but by even less. The NDP is up.

For some reason, the Nanos weight for QC went from the usual ~22% (commensurate with QC's population size) to ~19%. So treat Nanos changes from yesterday with caution...

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 18)
LIB - 158.1 158.2 (34.9 34.8%)
CON - 147.6 147.4 (36.7%)
NDP - 15.5 15.6 (11.8%)
BQ - 12.6 (4.6%)
GRN - 3.2 (8.8%)

IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In NL, CONs gain Avalon from LIBs.
- In QC, CONs gain Trois-Rivières and Jonquière from LIBs.

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