Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Sunday, September 22, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 9/19-21

The following poll has been added to the model:
Nanos' 9/19-21 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 22%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The Tory lead shrinks a bit in this Nanos poll. This almost perfectly offsets the replacement of older Nanos samples (remember that this is a rolling poll) with those that are one day more recent. The projection is almost exactly unchanged.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 20)
CON - 154.4 (37.2%)
LIB - 148.8 (33.9%)
NDP - 15.8 (11.7%)
BQ - 14.8 (4.8%)
GRN - 3.2 (9.2%)

IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection: none.

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