Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 9/21-23, Ipsos 9/20-23

The following polls have been added to the model:
Nanos' 9/21-23 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 16%)
Ipsos/Global News' 9/20-23 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 14%)
Mainstreet's 9/18 Compton--Stanstead poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The Nanos poll puts the Liberals back in the lead, consistent with the fading "blackface" effect narrative. The BQ is still high, despite the dropping of the 9/20 sample, when it first jumped. Despite the latter, this update shifts the projection toward the Liberals.

The Ipsos poll shifts the projection toward the Tories, but only marginally due to Ipsos' slight Tory lean. Overall, the Nanos effect dominates, and the Conservative lead in the projection shrinks slightly.

Finally, the Mainstreet poll caused a riding adjustment for Compton--Stanstead, which is of little consequence since the Liberals are comfortably ahead there anyway.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 22)
CON - 150.7 (36.5%)
LIB - 146.3 (33.1%)
BQ - 19.1 (5.1%)
NDP - 17.2 (12.3%)
GRN - 3.7 (9.9%)
PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection: none.

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