Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Projection Update: Forum 9/11

The following poll has been added to the model:
Forum's 9/11 national poll (current weight among national polls: 25%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This poll is solid across the board for the Conservatives - except in QC where it is excellent for the Liberals. In ON, this poll has the Tories with a lead that, while marginal, is (if you round it) nevertheless the largest since at least early July in a non-Ipsos poll.

The Greens get their first result above 20% in BC in about a month, while the NDP records its worst BC number of the summer (and perhaps in years?). This is enough to push the Greens ahead of the NDP in the BC polling average, as you can see on the left. In fact, this whole poll is another disaster for the NDP.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 11)
LIB - 162.4 (35.0%)
CON - 149.0 (37.0%)
NDP - 12.7 (10.8%)
BQ - 9.5 (4.2%)
GRN - 3.5 (9.7%)

PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.4

If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

This is the Tories' highest poll average (though not seat count) since my 2019 tracking started - I'll have to update the trends I just posted a few hours ago.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In NL, CONs retake St. John's East from the NDP.
- In QC, LIBs take Terrebonne and La Pointe-de-l'Île from the BQ. (I have doubts about this - these seats get the Montreal adjustment due to their location, but they're much more francophone than other Montreal seats.)
- In ON, CONs retake Northumberland--Peterborough South and St. Catharines from LIBs.
- In BC, CONs take Cloverdale--Langley City from LIBs.

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