Projection Update: Nanos 9/18-20

The following poll has been added to the model:
Nanos' 9/18-20 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 21%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This poll gives the Tories their largest national lead in any public poll since mid-August. The Liberals have dropped 3.5 points in 3 days.

Interesting, the Bloc has noticeably jumped, and was up as well in yesterday's Mainstreet poll. While Quebecers, at least judging by the media reaction, may not be as upset by Trudeau's "blackface" as other Canadians, they may be quite annoyed at Trudeau's apparent hypocrisy given that he seems to be planning federal intervention in Bill 21 court cases. That might have been understandable to Quebecers had Trudeau himself been exemplary, but now that Trudeau is revealed to be no better than others, Quebecers may have a lot less patience for his lessons.

Update: It looks like this hasn't happened - the BQ gains appear to come from elsewhere - but it is a risk for Trudeau going forward. Remember that Legault liked repeating during the 2018 campaign that Quebecers were fed up with Couillard's lessons. For now, the Bloc may be gaining among Quebecers that find the reaction in the rest of Canada borderline hysterical.

Or maybe the BQ jump is just a blip. We'll find out in the coming days.

The model sees this poll's results as quite significant, given that Nanos does not usually have a Conservative lean. It is very possible that there will be a pull back later today when the Mainstreet numbers come out. However, for now, the Tories gain the projection lead.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 19)
CON - 154.9 (37.4%)
LIB - 149.7 (34.1%)

NDP - 15.3 (11.6%)
BQ - 14.1 (4.8%)
GRN - 3.1 (8.9%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In NL, CONs gain Avalon from LIBs.
- In QC, the BQ gains Laurentides--Labelle and Laurier--Saint-Marie from LIBs.
- In ON, CONs gain Eglinton--Lawrence, St. Catharines and Mississauga--Erin Mills from LIBs.