Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Sunday, September 8, 2019

Projection Update: Campaign Research 9/3-5 and Abacus ON Breakdown

The following poll has been added to the model:
Campaign Research's 9/3-5 national poll (current weight among national polls: 43%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

43% weight on a single poll?! Yup. It's due to a combination of the following factors:
- By midpoint date, this poll is one full week more recent than any other publicly available poll.
- The model assumes that voting intentions can move more quickly in September, which puts a greater premium on recency going forward.
- This poll has a sample size larger than most (though much smaller than the Abacus poll published on Thursday).
The weighting model does put a negative weight on Campaign Research's previous polls, which brings the weight of this pollster down to a more reasonable 20%.

This poll is:
- good for the Conservatives in ON,
- good for the Liberals in the Atlantic (though not as good as previous Campaign Research polls, making the effect on the polling average rather neutral), QC and MB/SK,
- good for the Greens in the Atlantic, and
- weak for the NDP in BC.

The projection moves toward the Tories thanks to their strength in ON. Note that this update also includes sub-provincial adjustments in ON in response to the breakdown posted by Abacus; these cost just under 1 expected seat to the NDP, which appears to be doing worse than expected exactly where it needs to do well, and benefited the Liberals and Conservatives roughly evenly. (The update that not include EKOS' 4-week roll of ON polling, as it includes ON figures published as part of national polls.)

Update Sept. 8: Removed the provisional baseline adjustment for Thunder Bay--Superior North due to Bruce Hyer running again.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 4)
LIB - 158.9 158.8 (34.6%)
CON - 145.7 145.8 (36.5%)
NDP - 16.9 (12.1%)
BQ - 12.0 (4.3%)
GRN - 3.5 3.6 (9.2%)

PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5

If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In ON, CONs retake Cambridge, Kitchener South--Hespeler and Vaughan--Woodbridge from LIBs.
- In ON, CONs take Essex from the NDP.
- In BC, CONs retake Burnaby South from the NDP.

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