Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Projection Update: Innovative 9/20-25

The following poll has been added to the model:
Innovative's 9/20-25 national poll (current weight among national polls: 17%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This IRG poll is much like the previous Mainstreet poll: good Liberal results (relative to Tories) by a pollster with usually good Liberal results. However, unlike the Mainstreet poll, it did move the needle slightly because IRG hadn't come out with a poll for a while; thus, this increases the weight on IRG. And unlike the Mainstreet poll, this one is just as good for the Liberals as IRG's summer polls - and in fact better than its early September one.

The NDP is buoyed by a good BC number (and a poor one for the Tories), which erases its losses from earlier today. The Greens, however, are down again, seemingly resuming a two-month trend that paused only for the NDP's struggles in late August and the "blackface" incident.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 23)
LIB - 150.2 (33.7%)
CON - 147.5 (36.4%)
BQ - 18.4 (5.1%)
NDP - 17.7 (12.5%)
GRN - 3.1 (9.1%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seat changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, LIBs get Saint-Jean back from the BQ.
- In ON, LIBs get Burlington back from CONs.

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