Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 9/14-16, Ipsos 9/11-13 and Mainstreet 9/10 Lac-Saint-Jean Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Nanos' 9/14-16 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 26%)
Ipsos' 9/11-13 national poll (national, QC, BC and partial ON results only; current weight among national polls: 17%)
Mainstreet's 9/10 Lac-Saint-Jean poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The Nanos poll shows increases from yesterday for the two main parties at the expense of the NDP (back roughly to where they were three days ago) and Greens (down almost a third of their support from three days ago).

Coming from Ipsos, the national numbers are fairly encouraging for the Liberals (and poor for the NDP). The Ipsos poll is good for the Liberals in QC, casting some doubt on the Mainstreet release with the same field dates showing tightening there. However, these polls were mostly conducted before Trudeau started campaigning in QC, where he is dogged by the secularism debate, and before the controversy around the incomprehensible French version of the Liberal campaign song. The poll is also good news for the Liberals in ON - not relative to other polls, but relative to summer Ipsos polls that had been outliers. In BC, it's a good poll for the Tories: the third one in a week giving them a 10-to-12-point lead here. Yes, other polls have it closer, but only one poll from mid-July to early September showed this kind of BC results.

The Lac-Saint-Jean poll made me review the baseline adjustment and calibrate it more carefully; this led to a CON-LIB gap quite close to the one in the poll. I did not make a further adjustment based purely on the poll, even though the BQ's low result might warrant so. This is partly because the BQ is a distant third anyway in my projection, and partly because, given that the PQ did decently well in the region in the 2018 provincial election, I have doubts whether the BQ is really as low as the Mainstreet poll suggests. We'll find out in 5 weeks!

For now, I will not be making any adjustment based on the debate commission's polls because, while 15-20% (certain and likely) are strong results for the PPC in those four ridings (Etobicoke North, Nipissing--Timiskaming, Pickering--Uxbridge and Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley), that still puts them at least 10% away from actually winning a seat. This does mean my PPC expected seat count (which is just Beauce) is probably a few tenths too low. I may reverse this decision if the PPC takes off in the coming weeks.

There is also a poll in Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel, and a QC regional breakdown from Ipsos. The former is a bit higher than the Liberals than expected, but not enough to warrant an adjustment. The latter shows some deviations from adjustments based on Léger and Forum polls (CON down less in Quebec City; LIB up more on Island of Montreal, but not doing that well in the suburbs), but due to the limited sample size, I have not changed those adjustments for now.

The Ipsos poll helps the Liberals in the projection, reversing most (but not all) of their seat losses from yesterday.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 15)
LIB - 159.8 (34.8%)
CON - 147.6 (37.1%)
NDP - 14.9 (11.8%)
BQ - 11.6 (4.4%)
GRN - 3.1 (8.6%)

IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.4
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In PE, LIBs get Egmont back from CONs.
- In ON, LIBs get St. Catharines and Northumberland--Peterborough South back from CONs.
- In AB, the NDP gets Edmonton Strathcona back from CONs.

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