Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Sunday, September 29, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 9/26-28

The following poll has been added to the model:
Nanos' 9/26-28 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 32%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Today's Nanos tracker shows the Tories and Liberals stable, with the NDP down, the Bloc up, and the Greens slightly down but still at a high level.

The projection moves only slightly. Some of the movement is due to shifts: Bloc up, NDP down; some of it is due to the most recent Nanos numbers gaining more weight as all other polls are 2 or more days older (the Mainstreet tracker was not publicly released yesterday): Tories and Greens up, Liberals down.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 27)
LIB - 151.2 (33.5%)
CON - 146.8 (36.2%)
BQ - 18.7 (5.1%)
NDP - 17.1 (12.0%)
GRN - 3.3 (10.0%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the BQ retakes Jonquière from CONs.
- In QC, the BQ regains Saint-Jean from LIBs.
- In BC, GRNs regain Cowichan--Malahat--Langford from the NDP. (The model has three parties - these two plus the Tories - within 0.5%.)

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