Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Sunday, September 22, 2019

Projection Update: Forum 9/19-21

The following poll has been added to the model:
Forum's 9/19-21 national poll (current weight among national polls: 28%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This poll is very good news for the Liberals: not only does a tie compare well to the previous Forum result of a 3-point Tory lead, but also the Liberals have a 6-point lead in ON. In fact, the Liberals getting just 12% in AB means that this poll is better news for them than its headline suggests.

The bad news for the Liberals is that the Bloc is up in QC, like in the Nanos and Mainstreet polls (as inferred from the national numbers). The Conservatives are weak in QC.

The NDP and Greens have the same top line number, but the Greens get much better news in terms of support distribution. For the first time in a while, the Greens are projected ahead in 5 seats.

All this has a meaningful impact on the projection, where the Liberals retake the lead, and the BQ is challenging the NDP for third place (and in fact have more seats projected ahead than the NDP).

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 20)
LIB - 153.6 (34.2%)
CON - 149.1 (36.7%)
NDP - 15.6 (11.8%)
BQ - 15.1 (4.9%)
GRN - 3.6 (9.1%)

PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In NL, LIBs get Avalon back from CONs.
- In PE, LIBs get Charlottetown back from CONs.
- In QC, the PPC takes Beauce from CONs.
- In QC, LIBs take Jonquière and Trois-Rivières from CONs.
- In QC, the BQ takes Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton from CONs.
- In ON, LIBs get Mississauga--Erin Mills, St. Catharines, Eglinton--Lawrence and Kanata--Carleton back from CONs.
- In AB, CONs regain Edmonton Strathcona from the NDP.
- In BC, GRNs retake Cowichan--Malahat--Langford from CONs.
- In BC, GRNs retake Victoria from LIBs.

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