Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, September 27, 2019

Projection Update: Abacus 9/23-26, Nanos 9/24-26, Mainstreet's Laurier--Sainte-Marie Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Abacus' 9/23-26 national poll (current weight among national polls: 25%)
Nanos' 9/24-26 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 21%)
Mainstreet's 9/24 Laurier--Sainte-Marie poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This Abacus poll is the first one from Abacus showing a Liberal lead since late May. Furthermore, the regional breakdown is very good for the Liberals, with a lead in BC and widening ones in QC and ON. This moves the projection significantly towards the Liberals.

The Nanos poll shifted slightly against the Liberals, but the silver lining for them is that the Bloc is also down.

The Laurier--Sainte-Marie poll shows what I've been suspecting since making the model in late July: that Guilbeault would enjoy a sizable personal effect. I have made a baseline adjustment now that there is a quantitative basis for it. Obviously, this moves the riding away from the Bloc.

You'll note that the Greens move up in the vote share projection thanks to a good number from Nanos, but down below 3 for the first time in the seat projection. That's due to their weak 12% in BC in the Abacus poll. The NDP is up to 7 seats projected ahead in BC, their best in a long time.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 25)
LIB - 156.2 (34.1%)
CON - 142.5 (35.9%)
NDP - 18.1 (12.5%)
BQ - 17.3 (5.0%)
GRN - 2.9 (9.3%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, CONs retake Jonquière from the BQ.
- In QC, LIBs retake Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Saint-Jean from the BQ.
- In ON, LIBs get Kitchener South--Hespeler, Richmond Hill, Northumberland--Peterborough South and King--Vaughan back from CONs.
- In BC, the NDP gets Cowichan--Malahat--Langford back from CONs.

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