Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, September 30, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 9/27-29

The following poll has been added to the model:
Nanos' 9/27-29 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 28%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

There is no meaningful movement either in the Nanos tracker (except maybe the Bloc being down slightly) or the projection. It's a boring update!

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 28)
LIB - 151.7 (33.4%)
CON - 143.9 (35.7%)
BQ - 19.1 (5.1%)
NDP - 19.0 (12.6%)
GRN - 3.3 (10.0%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, LIBs retake Longueuil--Saint-Hubert and Hochelaga from the BQ.
- In ON, CONs regain Kitchener South--Hespeler from LIBs.

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