Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, September 27, 2019

Projection Update: Research Co. 9/24-26

The following poll has been added to the model:
Research Co.'s 9/24-26 national poll (current weight among national polls: 12%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

We weren't done for the day! A Research Co. poll is out, and shows the Liberals with a 3-point lead. The regional breakdown for this poll, though, isn't terrible for the Tories, as they are lower than usual in the Prairies. As a result, they don't lose that much ground relative to the Liberals in the seat projection.

This poll has another piece of bad news for the Greens: 11% in BC. We are nearing the point where the Greens' number in Atlantic Canada surpasses their number in BC (both are now between 14% and 15%, or one point more without the turnout adjustment). The problem is that there is less vote division in Atlantic Canada due to the NDP being much weaker there than in BC, so BC support is more useful than Atlantic support for the Greens.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 25)
LIB - 154.3 (34.0%)
CON - 143.6 (36.0%)
NDP - 18.2 (12.5%)
BQ - 18.1 (5.1%)
GRN - 2.9 (9.1%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seat changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, LIBs get Saint-Jean back from the BQ.

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