Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, September 16, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 9/13-15

The following poll has been added to the model:
Nanos' 9/13-15 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 25%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This is a noticeable one-day increase for the Tories and drop for the Greens. It can also be inferred that the Bloc gained about 3 points in QC from yesterday. The impact on the projection is meaningful - almost half of the Liberal seat lead is gone.

The latest (freely available) national results from each pollster in September are now:
Innovative C+1
Campaign =
Léger C+1
Abacus C+2
Forum C+3.9
Mainstreet =
Nanos C+0.4
It looks like the Liberal momentum from late August has at least stalled.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 14)
LIB - 156.8 (34.4%)
CON - 149.2 (37.1%)
NDP - 15.8 (11.9%)
BQ - 12.0 (4.4%)
GRN - 3.3 (9.0%)

IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.4
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In PE, CONs regain Egmont from LIBs.
- In ON, CONs regain St. Catharines from LIBs.
- In AB, CONs regain Edmonton Strathcona from the NDP.
- In BC, CONs regain Cloverdale--Langley City from LIBs.

No comments: