Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Projection Update: Léger 9/20-24 and Insights West BC Polls

The following polls have been added to the model:
Léger's 9/20-24 national poll (national and QC results only; current weight among national polls: 15%)
Insights West's 9/6-10 and 9/19-23 BC polls
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Update Sept. 24: I had missed the PDF link at the top of the Le Devoir article! Hat tip to Evan Scrimshaw from Lean Tossup for pointing that out. Post now updated to include full regional breakdown; further update to come for changes to within-QC adjustments.

Update Sept. 25: The within-QC adjustments have been updated. This cost the Liberals about 0.5 seats to the Conservatives' profit, essentially reversing the effect of adding the national breakdown. However, in terms of seats ahead, it's the Bloc that gains one net seat each from the Grits and Tories.

The Insight West polls do not factor into the BC provincial average because decided+leaning numbers are not available, and the distribution of undecided voters isn't close to uniform geographically or demographically. However, I did use the regional breakdown to define some regional adjustments. These cost the Greens 0.3 seats due to their underperformance on Vancouver Island, and were mildly positive for the Liberals and NDP due to Conservative underperformance in Metro Vancouver. Three seats were flipped: the NDP and Tories swapped Burnaby South (CON to NDP) and Skeena--Bulkley Valley (NDP to CON - but shifted back after the Léger poll), while the Liberals marginally got Cloverdale--Langley City back.

The Léger poll shows no effect of "blackface" nationally. This helps the Liberals in the projection, as other polls had shown an effect. This is another data point consistent with the previously discussed hypothesis that the "blackface" effect is already fading. The QC results, however, are concerning for the Liberals, especially given that Léger oversampled there. Crucially, the Bloc is ahead in the "rest of QC" area, contrary to the late August and early September Léger polls. The Tories also do well in QC, contrary to other recent polls. On the other hand, the poor Tory numbers in Atlantic Canada and ON really help the Liberals.

This update only uses the partial results contained in the Le Devoir article. The breakdown for other provinces and within-QC areas will be added in a future update when they become fully available. For now, the model infers that the Léger results in the rest of Canada must be quite good for the Liberals given that their QC number is poor, but their national number is decent.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 22)
CON - 148.5 147.9 148.5 (36.4%)
LIB - 148.2 148.7 148.2 (33.3%)
BQ - 19.3 19.4 19.2 (5.1%)
NDP - 17.7 17.8 (12.4 12.5%)
GRN - 3.3 (9.5%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seat changing hands since the last projection:
- In PE, LIBs get Charlottetown and Egmont back from CONs.
- In QC, the BQ takes Saint-Jean and Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques from LIBs.
- In QC, CONs take Jonquière and Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton from the BQ.
- In QC, CONs take Beauce from the PPC.
- In QC, CONs take Beauport--Limoilou from the LIBs.
- In QC, the BQ gains Montarville from the LIBs.
- In ON, LIBs get Kanata--Carleton back from CONs.
- In ON, the NDP gets Essex back from CONs.
- In BC, LIBs get Cloverdale--Langley City back from CONs.
- In BC, the NDP gets Burnaby South back from CONs.

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