Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos Polls Ending 8/2 and 8/30

The following polls have been added to the model:
Nanos' national polls ending 8/2 and 8/30 (current weights among national polls: 1.6% and 5.7%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

CTV has posted some national Nanos numbers. Their inclusion in the average has little effect because:
- they are conducted over 4 weeks, and I use poll midpoint dates,
- their samples sizes are small, and
- only the national numbers are available, so they do not impact differences between regions.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: August 28)
LIB - 162.4 (34.9%)
CON - 139.5 (35.9%)
NDP - 18.0 (12.2%)
BQ - 13.5 (4.5%)
GRN - 3.6 (9.3%)

PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5

If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

No seat lead changed hands. Note that the polling average is now even (actually the LIBs lead by 0.01%): the CON advantage in the projection is entirely due to the turnout adjustment.

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