Nanos' national polls ending 8/2 and 8/30 (current weights among national polls: 1.6% and 5.7%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.
CTV has posted some national Nanos numbers. Their inclusion in the average has little effect because:
- they are conducted over 4 weeks, and I use poll midpoint dates,
- their samples sizes are small, and
- only the national numbers are available, so they do not impact differences between regions.
Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: August 28)
LIB - 162.4 (34.9%)
CON - 139.5 (35.9%)
NDP - 18.0 (12.2%)
BQ - 13.5 (4.5%)
GRN - 3.6 (9.3%)
PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.
No seat lead changed hands. Note that the polling average is now even (actually the LIBs lead by 0.01%): the CON advantage in the projection is entirely due to the turnout adjustment.
NDP - 18.0 (12.2%)
BQ - 13.5 (4.5%)
GRN - 3.6 (9.3%)
PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.
No seat lead changed hands. Note that the polling average is now even (actually the LIBs lead by 0.01%): the CON advantage in the projection is entirely due to the turnout adjustment.
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