Projection Update: Nanos 9/22-24

The following poll has been added to the model:
Nanos' 9/22-24 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 20%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

First, in case you missed the Léger update late last night, you may want to read the previous post. That update saw the Liberals essentially pull back into a tie with the Tories, and 11 seats changed hands.

Today's Nanos update shows a jump in Conservative support, who overtake the Liberals despite a marginal increase in the latter's support. The model views this as fairly neutral news, though, as the previous sample markedly improved for the Liberals (moving from 9/18-20 to 9/19-21) - it could be that 9/21 was simply a bad Tory day in the Nanos poll. Other parties, especially the Greens, are down.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 23)
CON - 149.0 (36.6%)
LIB - 148.5 (33.5%)
BQ - 19.2 (5.1%)
NDP - 17.0 (12.3%)

GRN - 3.3 (9.3%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In ON, CONs regain Essex from the NDP.
- In BC, CONs gain Skeena--Bulkley Valley from the NDP.