Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Saturday, September 14, 2019

Projection Update: Abacus 9/6-10 and Nanos 9/11-13

The following polls have been added to the model:
Abacus' 9/6-10 national poll (current weight among national polls: 12%)
Nanos' 9/11-13 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 21%)
Update Sept. 14: I forgot to mention that this update also incorporates national results from the Nanos summer poll ending August 9 (which replaces those from the overlapping poll ending August 2), and that the poll ending July 12 was re-added; both of these polls currently have negative weight. The results from polls ending August 16 and 23 have also been added to the spreadsheet, and will factor into the next update of projection trends (they do not count going forward as they overlap with the last Nanos summer poll ending September 6). These numbers were made available by CTV News.
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

As usual, Abacus' numbers are very stable. It continues to see a near tie in ON and BC, unlike some other pollsters, and continues to see a smaller-than-average (but still large) CON lead in MB/SK. Also, it continues to have the NDP fairly strong, although the NDP has dropped a few points in QC and ON since the last Abacus poll. The facts that this poll is stronger for the NDP than others but weaker than the previous Abacus poll essentially cancel out for the projection.

So why did the NDP gain (modestly)? It's due to the Nanos poll. Just like Abacus, Nanos sees the NDP down a bit from its previous poll, but still stronger than most other pollsters. The difference is that because the previous Abacus poll had a very large sample, reducing its weight had a large effect; this is not the case for Nanos (whose previous poll is also considered older than Abacus' because it was conducted over 4 weeks and I use the midpoint date). Therefore, the weight of Nanos in the projection has increased noticeably, which helps the NDP and hurts the Tories and the Bloc.

I've previously mentioned that Nanos weights were fairly different from population proportions. That appears to no longer be the case, so this and future Nanos polls are perhaps not strictly comparable to the summer ones. Also, I have added Nanos back to the list of pollsters on the right as the national numbers are now available from the Nanos website.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 12)
LIB - 161.4 (34.7%)
CON - 145.2 (36.4%)
NDP - 16.6 (12.0%)
BQ - 10.4 (4.3%)
GRN - 3.4 (9.4%)

IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In PE, LIBs get Egmont back from CONs.
- In QC, LIBs regain Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères from the BQ.
- In ON, CONs regain St. Catharines from LIBs.
- In BC, Wilson-Raybould retakes Vancouver Granville from LIBs.

No comments: