Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Mini Projection Update: Léger 9/6-9's QC breakdown

The following information has been added to the model:
QC Breakdown from Léger's 9/6-9 national poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

I have made small changes to some QC regional adjustments in response to the information above. They are detailed in an update to this post.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 11)
LIB - 162.4 (35.0%)
CON - 148.7 (37.0%)
NDP - 12.7 (10.8%)
BQ - 9.7 (4.2%)
GRN - 3.5 (9.7%)

PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.4

If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seat changing hands since the last projection:
- The BQ gets Terrebonne back from LIBs.

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