Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Saturday, September 21, 2019

Mapped Projection Update: Mainstreet 9/18-20

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 9/18-20 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 36%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Mainstreet, like Nanos did this morning, also sees a drop in Liberal support. However, because the drop is smaller and adding this poll reduces the weight on recent Nanos polls slightly, the projection is only marginally affected.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 19)
CON - 154.5 (37.2%)
LIB - 148.6 (33.9%)
NDP - 16.0 (11.8%)
BQ - 14.7 (4.8%)
GRN - 3.2 (9.1%)

IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seat changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the BQ gains Salaberry--Suroît from LIBs.

Given all the changes in the past 24 hours, it's time for a new map:

And here's the potential House of Commons. Note that if I used the rounded projection rather than seats ahead, the Conservatives and Bloc would combine for 169 seats, while the Liberals, NDP and Greens would combine for 168 seats...

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