Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, September 9, 2019

Projection Update: Innovative 8/30-9/5 and EKOS 7/16-18 Regional Breakdown

The following poll has been added to the model:
Innovative Research Group's 8/30-9/5 national poll (current weight among national polls: 21%)
Full regional breakdown from EKOS Research's 7/16-18 national poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Note: I have not yet delved into the seat cluster analysis by IRG. Once I have, I'll either update this post or make a separate one. Update Sept. 10: See this separate post.

This new IRG poll is mildly positive for the Bloc: a combination of it being above 20% and the Liberals below 35% in QC. It is also a good one for the Tories in ON, as the poll shows a near tie there. The Liberals get decent news in the Atlantic, MB/SK and BC. While the national number is OK for the Greens, the diffuse distribution of the support is disappointing news for them.

The most interesting feature of this poll (other than the seat cluster analysis, which combines the data from three polls) is that it is completely different from other IRG polls: different panel provider and very different poll question. Therefore, I am treating this poll as being from a separate "IRG-2" pollster. As we'll see below, this makes a BIG difference.

EKOS provided regional breakdowns for several polls; however, only one of the breakdowns was previously unavailable, and that poll has almost zero weight due to its age.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 4)
LIB - 158.0 (34.5%)
CON - 145.9 (36.4%)
NDP - 17.0 (12.1%)
BQ - 12.7 (4.4%)
GRN - 3.5 (9.3%)

PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.4

If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

If I had coded this poll as from the "regular" IRG, the Liberals would be at 152.5, the Tories at 150.6, and the vote share gap would be 2.9% instead of 1.9%. Why such a big difference? The reason is that "regular" IRG has been leaning fairly noticeably toward the Liberals. The weighting model would have put a higher weight on the most recent poll, and put negative weight on the older polls showing the Liberals up 3-4 points. The upshot is that this poll would have been treated roughly as a C+5 poll! In a sense, without explicitly computing a pollster house effect and stripping it out, the model would have effectively done so. I view this as a sign that things are working as they should.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the PPC takes Beauce from CONs.
- In ON, CONs take St. Catharines from LIBs.

No comments: