Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Projection Update: Léger 9/13-17, Mainstreet 9/15-17 and Nanos 9/15-17

The following polls have been added to the model:
Léger's 9/13-17 national poll (partial results from article; current weight among national polls: 19%)
Mainstreet's 9/14-16 15-17 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 25%)
Nanos' 9/15-17 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 18%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.
Update Sept. 19: Corrected dates for Mainstreet, which were misreported in the iPolitics article.

Overall, these numbers show stability in the race: no party moves in the same direction in all three polls. There is nothing particularly noteworthy in the regional numbers from the Léger poll released by The Canadian Press.

There was also a Mainstreet riding poll in Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier showing a comfortable Conservative lead, as expected. I revised the regional adjustment for this riding to match the population split of 58% in Quebec City CMA and 42% outside (previously I had simply included this riding in the Quebec City CMA area). This made the projection almost exactly match the poll, so no riding-specific adjustment was necessary.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 16)
LIB - 162.2 (35.2%)
CON - 145.1 (36.8%)
NDP - 14.9 (11.7%)
BQ - 11.6 (4.5%)
GRN - 3.1 (8.6%)

IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seat changing hands since the last projection:
- In ON, CONs regain Vaughan--Woodbridge from LIBs.

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