Projection Update: Campaign Research 9/18-19 ON Poll

The following poll has been added to the model:
Campaign Research's 9/18-19 ON poll (current weight among ON polls: 28%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This large sample Campaign Research poll of ON (2,035 respondents total) has very encouraging news for the Tories: they are ahead by 4%. This is the Conservatives' best result in ON in any poll published in the past 2 months. The Liberal ON lead in the projection halves from 4.3% to 2.1%, which has a significant impact on the national numbers.

In terms of the comparison between regions of Ontario and the province as a whole, compared to the last election, this poll has good news for the Tories in Ottawa and Northern ON, and good news for the Liberals in Southwestern ON and Hamilton/Niagara. The regional adjustments have been updated, and will be in the next post on polling-related adjustments.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 18)
LIB - 153.9 (34.5%)

CON - 152.3 (37.2%)
NDP - 15.1 (11.5%)
BQ - 12.6 (4.6%)
GRN - 3.2 (9.0%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In ON, CONs gain Kenora, Markham--Stouffville, Mississauga--Lakeshore, Oakville and Mississauga--Streetsville from LIBs.

Additionally, the following changes occurred due to changes in the regional adjustments:
- CONs gain Kanata--Carleton from LIBs. (Addendum: This, of course, does not account for the scandal affecting the CON candidate.)
- LIBs get St. Catharines back from CONs.