Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Projection Update: Angus Reid 9/13-16

The following poll has been added to the model:
Angus Reid's 9/13-16 national poll (current weight among national polls: 19%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This poll shows very little change from the August Angus Reid poll.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 16)
LIB - 160.8 (35.2%)
CON - 145.9 (36.7%)
NDP - 15.2 (11.8%)
BQ - 12.0 (4.6%)
GRN - 3.1 (8.6%)

IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seat changing hands since the last projection:
- In PE, CONs retake Egmont and Charlottetown from LIBs. (Note that a Mainstreet poll showing LIBs leading in Charlottetown is not factored into the model as it is behind a paywall. If it is an indication that the LIBs are holding on better in Charlottetown than elsewhere in PEI, it could be that Malpeque flips instead.)
- In QC, LIBs gain Trois-Rivières and Jonquière from CONs.
- In AB, CONs take Edmonton Strathcona from the NDP.

No comments: