Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 9/21-23

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 9/21-23 national poll (national numbers only; current weight among national polls: 26%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Correction 9/24: Forgot to enter a weight for Mainstreet's BQ number on the spreadsheet.

This Mainstreet poll basically repeats the results from yesterday, with a mild uptick for the Liberals (and downtick for the Greens). The projection moves marginally against the Liberals, as a result of the model applying more aggressive negative weights on old Liberal-favouring Mainstreet polls. But the basic story is: no change.

With this update, 97% of the national weight is on post-"blackface" data.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 22)
CON - 151.4 (36.6%)
LIB - 145.7 146.1 (33.1 33.2%)
BQ - 19.2 18.7 (5.1 5.0%)
NDP - 17.1 17.2 (12.3%)
GRN - 3.6 (9.6 9.7%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

These results are virtually identical to last night's projection.

Seat changing hands since the last projection:
- In BC, CONs retake Cowichan--Malahat--Langford from GRNs.

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