Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, September 13, 2019

Projection Update: DART 9/11

The following poll has been added to the model:
DART's 9/11 national poll (current weight among national polls: 23%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Unlike the mid-August DART poll, this one is not a CON-friendly outlier in terms of national numbers. As a result, even though the headline number favours the Tories, the projection actually moves against them as a consequence of the lower (actually negative) weight now applied to the previous DART poll.

The main beneficiary of this change is the NDP, for whom this poll is excellent everywhere except in QC - best result since mid-July in Atlantic Canada and all summer in BC (which puts them back into third place there). This poll was conducted on the same day as the Forum poll, which was disastrous for the NDP. This is a stark illustration of the IVR vs. online difference, which has only grown since I wrote about it: the three IVR pollsters now have the NDP at 7.2-8.6% in their most recent poll, while for the online pollsters, it's 11-18%.

The Bloc also did well in this poll. Conversely, this is a bad poll for the Greens - fourth in the Atlantic and distant fourth in BC.

Getting back to the two big parties, the Tories did well and the Liberals did poorly in QC, leading to the parties being within 5 points. This was also the case in the previous DART polls, but not the case in any of the 21 other most recent results in QC. So there appears to be a strong DART house effect in QC. Elsewhere, the Liberal lead in ON is pretty good news for them in relation to both this poll's national results and the previous DART poll's ON results.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 11)
LIB - 161.1 (34.7%)
CON - 146.2 (36.6%)
NDP - 15.1 (11.6%)
BQ - 11.1 (4.4%)
GRN - 3.5 (9.6%)

IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In NL, the NDP retakes St. John's East from CONs.
- In PE, CONs regain Egmont from LIBs.
- In QC, the BQ gets La Pointe-de-l'Île and Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères back from LIBs.
- In ON, LIBs get St. Catharines back from CONs.
- In AB, the NDP gets Edmonton Strathcona back from CONs.
- In BC, LIBs get Cloverdale--Langley City back from CONs.

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