Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, September 6, 2019

Mini Projection Update: Justason's Aug/Sept Polls in Vancouver Granville and Vancouver

The following polls have been added to the model:
Justason's 8/28-30 Vancouver Granville and 9/3 Vancouver polls
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The Vancouver Granville poll overlapped with Mainstreet's latest Vancouver Granville poll, but shows a different result: Jody Wilson-Raybould has a moderate lead. The resulting update in the adjustment for this riding makes her inch ahead in the projection. The City of Vancouver poll did not result in an adjustment. Details are provided in an update to this post.

Update Sept. 6: Lean Tossup has pointed out that this polling was sponsored by the Wilson-Raybould campaign. As a result, it will not be part of the projection.

Also, this update includes a tiny change in Atlantic Canada (+0.1 seat CON, -0.1 seat LIB) due to fixing a small spreadsheet error related to rounding.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: August 28)
LIB - 159.9 160.0 (34.6%)
CON - 142.0 (36.1%)
NDP - 19.1 19.2 (12.6%)
BQ - 12.4 (4.4%)
GRN - 3.4 (9.1%)

IND - 0.6 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

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