Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 9/14-16

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 9/13-15 14-16 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 29 30%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.
Update Sept. 17: Now includes actual decided+leaning numbers and count of decided+leaning voters (previous numbers apportioned undecided proportionally and estimated the sample size of decided+leaning voters). Note also that approximate 9/12-14 13-15 numbers (inferred from iPolitics article) will be included in the future when non-overlapping with more recent samples.
Update Sept. 19: Corrected dates for Mainstreet, which were misreported in the iPolitics article.

This poll is a mild improvement for the Liberals over Mainstreet's 9/11-13 results. The Greens are down, just like in the Nanos tracking.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 15)
LIB - 160.3 161.2 (34.9 35.0%)
CON - 147.4 146.2 (37.1 36.9%)
NDP - 14.9 15.1 (11.7 11.8%)
BQ - 11.5 11.4 (4.4%)
GRN - 3.1 (8.6%)

IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.4
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

No seat lead Seat that changed hands since the last projection:
- In ON, LIBs get Vaughan--Woodbridge back from CONs.

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