Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, September 9, 2019

Mini Projection Update: Regional Breakdown from Nanos 8/30

The regional breakdown from Nanos' national poll ending 8/30 has been added to the projection.
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This breakdown is good for the Tories in the Atlantic (slightly ahead), and good for the Liberals on QC (huge lead) and BC (lead). The effects roughly cancel out, so there is little impact on the aggregate projection.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 4)
LIB - 158.8 (34.6%)
CON - 145.9 (36.5%)
NDP - 17.0 (12.1%)
BQ - 11.8 (4.3%)
GRN - 3.5 (9.2%)

PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5

If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

The projected lead has not changed in any seat.

Methodological note: I've noticed, while making this update, that Nanos has weird regional weights, so the regional breakdown does not quite add up to the national numbers. As a result:
- I previously inferred the BQ number in QC from the national number, based on Quebec's population proportion (22.7%). But Nanos appears give QC a weight of 24.8%, meaning that those inferred numbers were overestimates. Correcting this, along with a strong Liberal number in QC, accounts for the BQ's slight decrease.
- For Nanos polls, when the regional breakdown is available, I will not taking the national numbers into account (usually, I combine both sets of numbers to minimize the effect of rounding). The national support levels implied by the regional breakdown in this poll show a Liberal lead of 5.4% instead of 4.1%. But this doesn't actually help the Liberals much, since low Tory numbers in the Prairies have little consequence.

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