Projection Update: Mainstreet 9/19-21

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 9/19-21 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 27%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Mainstreet has the Liberals dropping 2 points, with all other parties progressing. A 2-point change in a 3-day rolling sample means that the 9/21 sample was 6 points lower than the 9/18 sample for the Liberals. Given a daily decided+leaning sample size of ~650, that is a statistically significant change.

This is (barely) enough to cause another lead change in the projection.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 20)
CON - 151.4 (36.8%)
LIB - 150.3 (33.8%)
NDP - 15.9 (11.9%)

BQ - 15.7 (4.9%)
GRN - 3.7 (9.3%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In PE, CONs regain Charlottetown from LIBs.
- In QC, CONs take Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton from the BQ.
- In ON, CONs regain Kanata--Carleton back from LIBs.