Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, September 26, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 9/23-25

The following poll has been added to the model:
Nanos' 9/23-25 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 22%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Today's Nanos update has the Tories and Bloc down, the NDP up, and the Liberals and Greens marginally up. The Liberals increase their lead in the projection, while the NDP regains third spot.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 24)
LIB - 153.2 (33.9%)
CON - 144.4 (36.0%)
NDP - 18.5 (12.7%)
BQ - 17.8 (5.0%)
GRN - 3.1 (9.1%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seat changing hands since the last projection:
- In BC, the NDP gets North Island--Powell River back from CONs.

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