Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Sunday, September 29, 2019

Mapped Projection Update: Mainstreet 9/26-28

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 9/26-28 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 42%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This poll is good news for the Liberals, who draw into a rough tie. Unlike Nanos, Mainstreet only sees a very slight and insignificant rise in Green support.

The NDP and the Bloc both rise to their highest level in Mainstreet polling since at least the start of the summer. As a result, the Bloc is at a new high in the seat projection, and the NDP is at a one-month high.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 27)
LIB - 151.7 (33.5%)
CON - 143.3 (35.7%)
BQ - 19.8 (5.2%)
NDP - 19.0 (12.6%)
GRN - 3.2 (9.7%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the PPC takes Beauce from CONs.
- In QC, the BQ takes Longueuil--Saint-Hubert and Hochelaga from LIBs.
- In ON, LIBs get Kitchener South--Hespeler back from CONs.
- In BC, the NDP gets Cowichan--Malahat--Langford back from GRNs.

Here are a map of the projection and a potential (pre-Speaker election) House of Commons sitting chart:

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