Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Projection Update: Innovative Research 9/10-15 and Mainstreet 9/16-18

The following polls have been added to the model:
Innovative's 9/10-15 national poll (current weight among national polls: 5%)
Mainstreet's 9/16-18 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 29%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

These polls affected the projection in opposite directions: Mainstreet helped the LIBs as their lead widened from yesterday, while the model saw Innovative Research's poll as decent news for the Tories who shrank the gap in ON (from the late July IRG poll conducted with similar methodology) from 14% to 8%.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 17)
LIB - 159.6 (35.1%)
CON - 147.4 (36.8%)
NDP - 14.9 (11.6%)
BQ - 11.9 (4.6%)
GRN - 3.2 (8.8%)

IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seat changing hands since last night's projection:
- In ON, CONs regain Northumberland--Peterborough South and St. Catharines from LIBs.
- In AB, the NDP gets Edmonton Strathcona back from CONs.

No comments: