Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Projection Update: Léger 9/6-9, Forum QC 8/27-28 and Mainstreet QC Riding Polls

The following polls have been added to the model:
Léger's 9/6-9 national poll (current weight among national polls: 23%)
Forum's 8/27-28 QC poll
Mainstreet's 9/3 QC riding polls: Beloeil--ChamblyTrois-Rivières, Sherbrooke, Louis-Hébert
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The Léger poll is fairly neutral for the two main parties - slightly positive for the Conservatives, but it's not much. The Conservative increase from the last Léger poll comes from MB/SK (not very useful) and BC (quite low in the last poll). The Liberals got an excellent number in Atlantic Canada. Léger continues to see the BQ above 20% in QC, but this time, they have the Liberals above 35% there, which partly neutralizes the good BQ number. The Green numbers are terrible in BC and the Atlantic, but excellent (for them) in ON - this isn't good news in terms of the distribution of their support.

The Forum QC poll is a strong one for the Liberals. The Mainstreet riding polls were roughly in line with the model's expectations, except in Sherbrooke, where the Liberals are doing better than expected. Adjustments resulting from these polls are described in an update to this post.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 7.5)
LIB - 164.8 (35.2%)
CON - 144.5 (36.4%)
NDP - 14.2 (11.4%)
BQ - 10.1 (4.2%)
GRN - 3.4 (9.6%)

PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.4

If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In NL, the NDP regains St. John's East from CONs.
- In QC, CONs get Beauce back from the PPC.
- In QC, LIBs take Beauport--Limoilou from CONs.
- In ON, CONs retake Vaughan--Woodbridge from LIBs.
- In ON, the NDP gets Windsor West back from LIBs.

1 comment:

Habs24cups said...

Day O, day O
Daylight come and me wan' go home
Day, me say day, me say day, me say day
Justin wear black face and it's time for this idiot to go home