Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, September 23, 2019

Projection Update: Angus Reid 9/21-23, DART 9/20 and Mainstreet 9/20-22

The following polls have been added to the model:
Angus Reid's 9/21-23 national poll (current weight among national polls: 27%)
DART's 9/20 national poll (current weight among national polls: 8%)
Mainstreet's 9/20-22 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 23%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This Angus Reid poll has high weight, as its field dates are a day more recent than the Nanos and Mainstreet tracking polls released today, while the DART poll has low weight due to being a day older. The big news is in QC, where Angus Reid and DART both corroborate the Bloc's rise observed by Nanos, Forum and, to a lesser extent, Mainstreet. This has a significant impact on the Bloc's seat projection, and that comes mostly at the expense of the Liberals. Also, despite the pro-Conservative turnout adjustment, the Bloc is now ahead of the Tories in QC in the vote projection.

On the other hand, despite the national headline numbers, the Angus Reid and DART polls did not move the projection against the Liberals much in the rest of Canada. The reason is that the model is smart enough to expect a Conservative-leaning result from DART and a poor Liberal result from Angus Reid, given these pollsters' past surveys. Also, the Angus Reid poll is decent for the Liberals in the rest of Canada: they did not lose ground in ON, and in fact gained marginally (not statistically significant) in the Atlantic and BC.

In fact, more than half of the Tories' 5-seat advantage came from their 1-point increase in the Mainstreet tracker (remember that the previous projection was almost a perfect tie). The NDP benefits from a decent Angus Reid number in BC and a good DART number in ON.

Update Sept. 23: Note that the support levels for the NDP, Greens and BQ were not precisely given in the iPolitics article. They were estimated from the text, and will be updated if they become publicly available.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 22)
CON - 151.2 (36.5%)
LIB - 145.9 (33.1%)
BQ - 18.6 (5.1%)
NDP - 17.7 (12.4%)
GRN - 3.6 (9.7%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In PE, CONs regain Charlottetown from LIBs.
- In QC, the BQ takes Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton and Jonquière from CONs.
- In QC, the BQ takes Beloeil--Chambly, Hochelaga and Longueuil--Saint-Hubert from LIBs.
- In ON, CONs regain Kanata--Carleton from LIBs.
- In AB, the NDP gets Edmonton Strathcona back from CONs. (Note: I am not using a paywalled Mainstreet survey for which the article title suggests a healthy Tory lead in this riding.)
- In BC, the NDP gets Burnaby South back from CONs.

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