Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, September 27, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 9/24-26

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 9/24-26 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 35%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

For the second consecutive day, Mainstreet shows the Liberals losing ground, now being marginally farther behind the Tories than they have been in public Mainstreet polling since late March. This is excellent news for the Tories in the projection, even though they are actually down marginally from yesterday's Mainstreet poll. This poll is also good news for the Bloc.

Despite both the Mainstreet and Nanos tracking polls moving against the Liberals today, the Abacus poll from this morning means that they are still up on the day.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 25)
LIB - 152.3 (33.7%)
CON - 145.0 (36.2%)
BQ - 18.4 (5.1%)
NDP - 18.3 (12.5%)
GRN - 3.0 (9.3%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the BQ retakes Jonquière from CONs.
- In QC, the BQ regains Saint-Jean from LIBs.
- In ON, CONs get King--Vaughan, Northumberland--Peterborough South and Richmond Hill back from LIBs.

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