Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, September 26, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 9/23-25 and Riding Poll, Nanos 9/11-24 ON Breakdown

The following polls have been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 9/23-25 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 36%)
Mainstreet's 9/23 Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques poll
Nanos' 9/11-24 ON breakdown
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Today's Mainstreet poll shows the Tories expand their lead by 1.1%, which offsets the 2% movement toward the Liberals in the Nanos tracker. Moreover, the day that was dropped, 9/22, does not appear to be a good Liberal day as adding it three days ago had moved the Mainstreet tracker to its lowest Liberal number. Therefore, this puts a dent in the Liberal recovery trend that seemed to be developing.

The Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques poll resulted in a small pro-Bloc/anti-NDP adjustment that is nevertheless meaningful as the model had been showing an almost exact three-way NDP/LIB/BQ tie around 24-25%.

The Nanos ON numbers are interesting. Although the headline mentions the Liberal slide in the 905, the model was expecting them where they ended up after the slide. This means that in Nanos' earlier sample, the Liberals were doing slightly better than expected in the 905. Given that small sample sizes should make us question how much of the slide is real, I think that these numbers are actually encouraging for the Liberals in the 905. Minor changes to the ON adjustments were made.

Incorporating those ON numbers into the provincial average is tricky since they cannot be treated as separate polls (they're part of already-included national numbers), and the 7-day release periods do not line up with the national 3-day release periods. The latter is important since regional numbers from each national poll are included as relative values to the national numbers in that poll. I ended up estimating national support for those 7-day periods. All this didn't make much difference: 0.1 seats were shifted from the Conservatives to the Liberals.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 24)
LIB - 149.8 (33.6%)
CON - 146.4 (36.3%)
BQ - 19.3 (5.1%)
NDP - 18.4 (12.8%)
GRN - 3.1 (9.0%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

We see that the Liberal seat lead is essentially unchanged from last night, but the Bloc and NDP have both increased.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the BQ takes Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques and Saint-Jean from LIBs.
- In ON, CONs regain Kitchener South--Hespeler from LIBs.

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