Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Projection Update: Narrative's 7/31-8/22 Atlantic Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Narrative's 7/31-8/22 Atlantic poll (current weight among national Atlantic polls: 29%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This poll is very good for the Liberals across the Atlantic, except in PEI. As a result of its inclusion, the Liberals have a slightly less tenuous grip on most of the several Atlantic races where they're projected marginally ahead.

Update Aug. 28: I have refined the within-Atlantic provincial adjustments. They're now better for the LIBs/worse for the CONs in NB, and slightly the reverse everywhere else (especially PEI). Since the tightest races in the projection are outside NB, this hurts the LIBs and helps the CONs. Changes below crossed-out and underlined.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: August 21)
LIB - 154.3 153.7 (33.7%)
CON - 145.4 146.0 (36.3%)
NDP - 20.4 20.3 (12.9%)
BQ - 13.3 (4.3%)
GRN - 3.7 (9.5%)
IND - 0.5

PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

I have also made an interim (see explanation below) update to the provincial adjustments in the Atlantic. Here are the new ones:
NL: CON +9 +9.5, NDP -0.5 -1.5, LIB -1.5 -2.5, GRN -7 -5.5
NS: CON -3, NDP +3, LIB -1.5, GRN +1.5
NB: CON -2.5 -3.5, NDP -3 -2, LIB +3 +4.5, GRN +2.5 +1
PE: CON +1 +4, NDP -1.5 -3, LIB -3.5 -5, GRN +4
All Most changes are fairly minor, as the previous adjustments held up well. The LIBs got some good news in NB, while the CONs got good news in PEI, which flips Egmont in the projection.

Please note that the other Atlantic polling firm, MQO Research, has been putting out its summer polling as well. Unlike Narrative, MQO releases its results province by province. MQO's numbers will be included in the polling average when all 4 provincial results have been released - we got NB today, and only NS is missing. However, I did consider the results already released for the interim adjustments above, and will finalize them when MQO's NS numbers are available.

Finally, if you're sharp-eyed, you may notice from the "seats ahead" table that one lead has changed... not in the Atlantic, but in ON! That puzzled me, and I thought I screwed something up. It turns out that the weight changes on the Atlantic components of national polls caused some shifts of under 0.01% due to the requirement that averages based on regional breakdowns of national polls add up to national averages. This flipped Cambridge back to Liberals, but obviously it's not a meaningful change.

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