Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, September 5, 2019

Projection Update: Abacus 8/23-29

The following poll has been added to the model:
Abacus' 8/23-29 national poll (current weight among national polls: 33%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The first thing to note about this poll is that it was in the field at the same time and before the Léger and EKOS polls published last weekend. Therefore, it should be viewed in conjunction with those polls, and not as a subsequent one. This poll also has a very large sample size, which gives it high weight despite it being a bit older than the other two surveys.

Due to the sample size (and perhaps also Abacus' penchant for stability), there is nothing particularly surprising in this poll. However, across the board, it is not a great one for the Liberals:
- their QC lead is smaller than in the previous Abacus poll;
- they get an ON lead (the previous Abacus poll was tied there), but only a small one; and
- they marginally trail in BC, unlike in the previous Abacus poll.
Abacus also continues to see decent NDP numbers, which should throw some cold water on the notion that the NDP is collapsing. Unsurprisingly, all this caused a Liberal drop in the projection, to the benefit of the Conservatives and NDP - but the changes are fairly small. The Greens continue their gentle slide.

Note that this projection also includes a change in how I treat incomplete regional breakdowns from national polls. Previously, I only included regions where a full breakdown of the main parties is available. However, given that I adjust the interim regional averages (only counting breakdowns from national polls) to match the interim national averages (only counting those same polls) anyway, also using partial regional figures would not bias the overall projection.

This mainly affects Global News/Ipsos polls, as only figures from Global News articles are fair game per my poll inclusion criteria, and those figures are often partial (e.g. only CON and LIB figures provided in a region). Currently, the effect of this is negative for the BQ (due to its 14% in the latest Global News/Ipsos poll), and mildly positive for the CONs (gains in ON, losses in QC) and the LIBs (gains in QC, losses in ON). In fact, the BQ drop in the projection is entirely due to this change rather than the Abacus poll.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: August 28)
LIB - 160.1 (34.6%)
CON - 141.9 (36.1%)
NDP - 19.2 (12.7%)
BQ - 12.4 (4.4%)
GRN - 3.4 (9.1%)

PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5

If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- LIBs regain Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Laurentides--Labelle from the BQ.
- CONs retake Oakville North--Burlington, Burlington and Richmond Hill from LIBs.
- The NDP retakes Burnaby South from CONs.
- Wilson-Raybould retakes Vancouver Granville from LIBs. Update Sept. 5: Since the Abacus poll was contemporaneous with the Mainstreet riding poll released last week, I have marginally modified the riding adjustment.

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