Projection Update: EKOS 8/27-29

The following poll has been added to the model:
EKOS' 8/27-29 national poll (current weight among national polls: 15%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The major news in this poll would normally be the LIBs' big lead in ON, but we've known for a while about EKOS' numbers there. Note that since this poll overlaps with EKOS' previous ON release, I no longer include that release in the polling average (using this poll gives EKOS a higher weight than using that one).

The other big news is the NDP's collapse not just in ON, but also in QC and even BC. This makes them fifth in the QC polling average (they're still third in BC). The EKOS numbers do not align with other pollsters', though that may partly be because the other national IVR pollsters (see the recent online vs. IVR post), Mainstreet and Forum, have not released any national or regional polls conducted in August.

Also, the BQ's number in this poll is very good. EKOS tends to produce high numbers for the BQ, but this is still the best they've had in months.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: August 28)
LIB - 161.5 (34.8%)

CON - 140.5 (36.0%)
NDP - 18.0 (12.2%)
BQ - 13.5 (4.5%)
GRN - 3.6 (9.3%)
PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

The LIBs are now above 160 for the first time, and the BQ is also at its highest since I started projections for 2019 about a month ago. Conversely, the CONs, NDP and GRNs are all at their lowest seat-wise (though not vote-wise for the CONs and NDP) since I started.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- LIBs regain Egmont from CONs.
- LIBs regain Richmond Hill, Burlington and Oakville North--Burlington from CONs.
- CONs take Burnaby South from the NDP.