Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, September 23, 2019

Polling-Related Adjustments 2019, Round 3

This post reviews polls of smaller areas than the six standard polling regions (BC, AB, SK/MB, ON, QC, Atlantic), and polls providing breakdowns of smaller areas. Resulting adjustments to the model are indicated in bold. You can view earlier rounds of polling-related adjustments here (round 1) and here (round 2).

Update Sept. 23: EKOS MB/SK results added. No adjustment yet.

Update Sept. 24: Insights West polls of BC. Adjustments added.

Update Sept. 25: Léger's QC breakdown. Adjustments updated.

Update Sept. 25: Angus Reid's ON breakdown. Adjustments updated.

Update Sept. 26: Mainstreet's Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques poll. Adjustments added.

Update Sept. 26: Nanos' ON breakdown. Adjustments updated.

Update Sept. 27: Mainstreet's Laurier--Sainte-Marie poll. Baseline adjustments updated.

Update Sept. 28: Mainstreet's GTA numbers and Forum's Toronto poll. Adjustments updated.

Update Oct. 1: Probe's MB poll and EKOS' MB/SK breakdown. Adjustments added. Also added: Mainstreet's Beauport--Limoilou poll, which did not result in an adjustment, and a Mainstreet Jonquière poll that I had missed, which did result in an adjustment.

Update Oct. 2: Mainstreet's Terrebonne poll. Adjustments added.

Update Oct. 3: Mainstreet's Beloeil--Chambly poll. Adjustments added.

Update Oct. 4: Mainstreet's Berthier--Maskinongé poll. Adjustments added.

Update Oct. 6: Mainstreet's Longueuil--Saint-Hubert poll. Adjustments added.

I. Regional Polls

Léger's 9/20-24 poll
This poll shows the Conservatives doing better in Quebec City, which shrinks their negative adjustment there; instead, the negative adjustment in the Montreal area grows. Changes from the previous round are in bold:
Quebec City CMA: CON -7, NDP -0.5, LIB +2.5 [BQ adjustment removed]
Montreal CMA: CON -2 (-0.5 in far suburbs), NDP +1.5 (except far suburbs), LIB +2 (Island of Montreal), +1.5 (near suburbs), +1 (far suburbs), GRN +0.5 (Island of Montreal only), BQ -1 (-0.5 in far suburbs)
Rest of Quebec North: CON +3.5, NDP -1.5, LIB -2.5, BQ +1
Rest of Quebec South: CON +4, NDP -1, LIB -3 (-2 in Eastern Townships), GRN -0.5, BQ +1
(Salaberry--Suroît is mostly outside of Montreal CMA but shares some characteristics with it. Since the Montreal CMA and Rest of QC S adjustments go in opposite directions, I have left this riding unadjusted. Moreover, due to the large difference between Quebec City and Rest of QC North adjustments, I am computing the adjustment in Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île-d'Orléans--Charlevoix and Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier according to their rough population distribution: 55% and 58% respectively in Quebec City CMA, 45% and 42% outside.)

Campaign Research's 9/18-19 poll
The main changes in the regional adjustments are as follows:
- I have separated York/Simcoe/Durham and Halton/Peel as Campaign Research concurs with earlier Corbett breakdowns that show the latter shifting more strongly away from Liberals than the former.
- The Liberals did well relative to what one would expect based on their provincial number in Hamilton/Niagara and Southwestern ON.
- The Tories did well relative to what one would expect based on their provincial number in Ottawa and Northern ON.
The updated adjustments are:
York/Simcoe/Durham: CON -1, NDP +2.5, LIB -0.5, GRN -1
Halton/Peel: CON +0.5, NDP +2, LIB -1.5, GRN -1
Hamilton/Niagara: CON -1.5, LIB +1.5
Southwest: NDP -1.5, LIB +1, GRN +0.5
East outside Ottawa: CON -2.5, NDP +0.5, GRN +2
City of Ottawa: CON +1.5, NDP +2, LIB -3, GRN -0.5
North: NDP -1.5, GRN +1.5
I have not changed the adjustment for the 7 central Toronto ridings (CON +2, NDP -5, LIB +2.5, GRN +0.5).
These adjustments, in effect from the 9/20 evening projection, are still fairly cautious - very roughly half the size suggested by the polls - to account for the possibility that some of the apparent effects might be due to random variation.

Angus Reid's 9/16-18 poll
Although conducted before the Campaign Research poll, this survey was published after it. The Liberals got strong numbers in the 905, the NDP in Hamilton/Niagara, and the Conservatives in Eastern and Northern ON. The updated adjustments, in effect from the 9/25 night projection, are (changes from the above in bold):
7 central Toronto ridings: NDP -4, LIB +3, GRN +1
York/Simcoe/Durham: CON -1, NDP +2.5, LIB -0.5, GRN -1 (CON -1.5, NDP +2.5, GRN -1 in Toronto CMA)
Halton/Peel: CON -0.5, NDP +2, LIB -0.5, GRN -1
Hamilton/Niagara: CON -1.5, NDP +0.5, LIB +1.5, GRN -0.5
Southwest: CON +0.25, NDP -2, LIB +0.75, GRN +1
East outside Ottawa: CON -1.5, NDP +1, LIB -1, GRN +1.5
City of Ottawa: CON +2, NDP +1.5, LIB -3.5
North: CON +4.5, NDP -3.5, LIB -0.5, GRN -0.5
Again, these remain cautious since nothing is very consistent across pollsters. For the purposes of retroactive computations when producing trends, these adjustments supersede those above, and are deemed to have been made as of the Campaign Research poll.

Nanos' 9/11-24 ON breakdown
These numbers caused a minor change in some adjustments (others remain as above):
York/Simcoe/Durham: CON -1, NDP +2, LIB 0, GRN -1 (CON -1.5, NDP +2, LIB +0.5, GRN -1 in Toronto CMA)
Southwest: CON +0.25, NDP -1.75, LIB +0.5, GRN +1
Again, for simplicity, for the purposes of retroactive computations when producing trends, these adjustments are deemed to have been made at the same time as those above and supersede them.

Mainstreet's 9/23-26 GTA breakdown
These numbers are favourable for the Liberals in the GTA overall, particularly in Peel. This is the opposite of summer Corbett numbers, which suggested that they're doing better in York/Durham. Therefore, I have decided to make the adjustments in those areas very similar. Mainstreet also shows great numbers for the Greens in the Simcoe region, but given that the subsample for that area is likely well under 100 respondents, the adjustment is limited. The changed adjustments are below (remainder as above), including balancing adjustments elsewhere in ON:
Halton/Peel and Durham outside Toronto CMA: CON -1, NDP +2, LIB 0, GRN -1
York and Durham inside Toronto CMA: CON -1.5, NDP +2.5, LIB 0, GRN -1
Simcoe: CON -2, NDP +1.5, LIB -0.5, GRN +1
Southwest: CON +0.5, NDP -1.75, LIB +0.5, GRN +0.75
North: CON +5, NDP -3.5, LIB -0.5, GRN -1

Forum's 9/25-26 Toronto poll
The Forum poll's results are very similar to the summer Forum poll of Toronto. The Central Toronto adjustment is maintained, and no further adjustment is made.

EKOS' 9/18-22 poll
Probe's 9/17-26 MB poll
EKOS' 9/26-29 poll
MB/SK breakdowns from national polls are tiny, and few pollsters provide them. Still, they usually suggest that the Tories are gaining more in SK than MB, and this one is no exception. I am close to making an adjustment. With the addition of the latest EKOS and Probe polls, I'm ready to make the following adjustments: CON -1.5, NDP +1.5 in Winnipeg, CON +1, NDP -1 in SK.

The Probe poll also suggests that the Liberals are not doing as well as expected in MB. However, combining the breakdowns from 7 EKOS polls and 2 Campaign Research polls conducted since July shows no signs that the Liberals are underperforming in MB relative to SK. I will keep an eye on this situation...

British Columbia
Insights West's 9/6-10 and 9/19-23 polls
Note: These polls do not factor into the BC provincial average because decided+leaning numbers are not available, and the distribution of undecided voters isn't close to uniform geographically or demographically. 
The regional breakdowns from these polls suggest that the Tories are rising more than expected in the rest of BC, mainly at the expense of the NDP, while the Greens are rising less than expected in Vancouver Island, with the Liberals holding up better there. For all four parties, countervailing effects were observed in Metro Vancouver. For now, I've made some cautious adjustments that are 20-50% of the observed effects:
Metro Vancouver: CON -1.5, NDP +1.5, LIB -0.5, GRN +0.5
Vancouver Island: LIB +1.5, GRN -1.5
Rest of BC: CON +2.5, NDP -2.5
The Metro Vancouver adjustment does not apply to Vancouver Granville since it has already been adjusted following riding polls. No adjustment applies to West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country, which is partly in Metro Vancouver, and partly in the "rest of BC."

II. Riding Polls (by Mainstreet unless otherwise noted)

Note: A riding poll will result in a model adjustment ONLY IF it shows a substantial deviation from regional swing and/or it is in a riding with unusual factors. Most riding polls will therefore be ignored: they generally did not help much in 2015.

Debate Commission Polls by EKOS
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley, 8/26-9/8
Nipissing--Timiskaming, 8/26-9/8
Etobicoke North, 8/26-9/9
Pickering--Uxbridge, 8/26-9/9
As written in the 9/17 projection update: "For now, I will not be making any adjustment based on the debate commission's polls because, while 15-20% (certain and likely) are strong results for the PPC in those four ridings (Etobicoke North, Nipissing--Timiskaming, Pickering--Uxbridge and Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley), that still puts them at least 10% away from actually winning a seat. This does mean my PPC expected seat count (which is just Beauce) is probably a few tenths too low. I may reverse this decision if the PPC takes off in the coming weeks."

Lac-Saint-Jean, 9/10
This poll caused me to take another look at the baseline adjustment for Lac-Saint-Jean, which resulted in a revision. I elected not to make a further adjustment even though the Bloc's poll result is much lower than expected: the PQ did relatively well in the region in the 2018 provincial election.

Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel, 9/12
The Liberals are a bit closer to the BQ than expected, but not enough to warrant an adjustment.

Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier, 9/13
The results closely matched the model's projection.

Jonquière, 9/14
This poll's results were very close to the projection for the CONs, LIBs and GRNs, but the NDP was a bit higher and the BQ lower than expected. Adjustment: NDP +2.5, BQ -2.5.

Ottawa Centre, 9/15
As one might have expected, even though the Paul Dewar personal effect wasn't easily visible in past election results (which resulted in only a modest baseline adjustment), the NDP appears to be struggling badly in this riding. Some of it might be a Catherine McKenna effect for the Liberals, though the Tories are also higher in this poll than expected. This leads to a riding-level adjustment of CON +5, NDP -10, LIB +5. This adjustment is included in projections starting 9/23.

Shefford, 9/? (published 9/23)
Like Mainstreet's earlier Sherbrooke poll, this one shows the Liberals higher and the Tories lower than expected. Adjustment: CON -4, LIB +4.

Compton--Stanstead, 9/18
Once again, the Liberals are doing better than expected in the Eastern Townships. Here, they may be benefiting from a well-known Bloc ex-MP not running again. Adjustment: LIB +5, BQ -5.

Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques, 9/23
The model saw a three-way race so tight that the leader had less than 25% support. The poll is a bit higher then the model for the Bloc, lower for the NDP, and bang on for the other parties. Adjustments: NDP -3, BQ +3.

Laurier--Sainte-Marie, 9/24
See post on baseline adjustments.

Beauport--Limoilou, 9/?
This is very close to where the model had the race. No adjustment.

Terrebonne, 9/25
The Bloc is a few points higher than expected, with the Liberals, Tories and NDP all marginally lower. This is a marginal case for whether an adjustment is necessary. Adjustments: CON -1, NDP -1, LIB -1, BQ +3.

Berthier--Maskinongé, 9/26
The NDP is a dozen points higher than expected, mostly at the expense of the Greens and Tories. As usual, the adjustment based on a single poll is about half of the gap between the projection and the poll, which makes this race essentially a dead heat. Adjustments: CON -2, NDP +6, GRN -3, BQ -1.

Beloeil--Chambly, 9/29
In contrast to Mainstreet's early September poll, which shows the Liberal candidate ahead, this latest poll shows the Bloc leader with a sizable lead. This is not surprising: campaigns matter, and Blanchet has been effective so far. Adjustments: CON -2.5, LIB -1.5, BQ +4.

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert, 9/29
This poll's results are similar to the projection, with the NDP a few points lower and the Liberals a few points higher. I have decided to make small adjustments even though I would usually ignore deviations this small: this is the riding where Pierre Nantel, the NDP MP, defected to the Greens, so it makes sense that some NDP voters may defect as well. Adjustments: NDP -2, LIB +2.

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