Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Projection Update: Angus Reid's 8/21-26 Poll and EKOS' 8/25-28 ON Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Angus Reid's 8/21-26 national poll (current weight among national polls: 24%)
Update: EKOS' 8/25-28 ON poll (current weight among ON polls: 4%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The Angus Reid poll is good news for the Tories in the Atlantic and ON, where they're marginally ahead. And it's excellent for the Liberals in QC.

Update: The EKOS poll is similar to the ON portion of EKOS' recent national release. In the past, I have been reluctant to include regional portions of a national poll released without national numbers by EKOS. This time is a bit different though: we do have a recent national poll by EKOS, which means that the weight on these numbers would be low (as you can see above - and it's effectively even lower if you consider that the weight on the previous EKOS numbers goes down). So this is effectively somewhat like a national poll with an ON oversample, similar to polls by Campaign Research.

Projection as of the latest national poll* (midpoint: August 23.5)
LIB - 155.0 156.5 (33.9 34.1%)
CON - 146.1 145.0 (36.3 36.2%)
NDP - 20.2 19.7 (12.9 12.7%)
BQ - 12.1 12.0 (4.3%)
GRN - 3.7 (9.4%)
IND - 0.5

PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.
*For now, the EKOS ON poll is treated as if it also has a midpoint date of August 23.5.
(Very minor changes outside ON because I fixed a data entry error for auxiliary information about the Angus Reid poll.)

With the Angus Reid poll, despite the good national headline figures for the Tories, it's the Liberals that gained about an expected seat from the Bloc. Why?
- The weighting formula now puts some negative weight on the July Angus Reid poll to reduce the pollster house effect. That poll (like many previous Angus Reid polls) was terrible for the Liberals.
- This poll undersampled ON, so the CONs' good ON number didn't help them as much as one might expect. By contrast, the QC sample, which was in proportion with the national sample size, really helped the LIBs.
- Additional Tory vote gains in SK/MB aren't very useful in terms of seats.

Update: With the EKOS poll, unsurprisingly, the LIBs gain at the expense of the CONs and NDP in ON.

Seats whose projected lead changes relative to the last projection:
- CONs gain Charlottetown from LIBs.
- LIBs gain Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques from the NDP.
- LIBs take Salaberry--Suroît, Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Laurentides--Labelle from the BQ.
- CONs regain Cambridge and Vaughan--Woodbridge from the LIBs. (This no longer happens after the EKOS poll.)

No comments: