Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 9/22-24

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 9/22-24 national poll (current weight among national polls: 32%)
Update Sept. 25: The tweet above with the full regional breakdown was deleted. Here's a link to the national results.
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This Mainstreet poll is good news for the Liberals: the Conservative national lead is essentially wiped out. Moreover, this is the first public release of the regional breakdown by Mainstreet in over 2 weeks, and it shows massive Liberal leads in QC and ON, with the Tory vote even more concentrated in their strongholds than in other polls.

However, all this apparent good Liberal news has failed to impress the model. Why?
- In terms of the national Conservative-Liberal gap, Mainstreet is still showing a better situation for the Tories than over the summer, while the model is where it was in late July. So rejigging the weights for Mainstreet polls toward this one (due to its recency) actually hurts the Liberals.
- The strong Liberal position in ON relative to national numbers is merely consistent with past Mainstreet releases, so it doesn't move the model much.
- The model is impressed by the strong Liberal number in QC. However, it is also impressed by the very strong Conservative result in Atlantic Canada.

The upshot is that the projection moves only marginally toward the Liberals. If you take today's Nanos and Mainstreet polls together, they had no aggregate effect on the (entirely insignificant) Conservative seat lead of 0.3, which makes sense as Nanos showed a 1.7% improvement in the Tory relative position, Mainstreet showed a 1.2% improvement in the Liberal one, and Mainstreet's sample is larger.

Instead, the action today (if you can call it that) was a slight drop for the NDP and the Greens.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 23)
CON - 149.3 (36.7%)
LIB - 149.0 (33.6%)
BQ - 18.8 (5.1%)
NDP - 16.8 (12.3%)
GRN - 3.2 (9.1%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seat changing hands since the last projection:
- In PE, CONs regain Egmont and Charlottetown from LIBs.
- In QC, the BQ retakes Jonquière from CONs.
- In QC, LIBs retake Longueuil--Saint-Hubert, Hochelaga and Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques from the BQ.
- In ON, LIBs get Markham--Stouffville and Kitchener South--Hespeler back from CONs.
- In BC, the NDP gets Skeena--Bulkley Valley back from CONs.

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