Monday, April 25, 2011

EKOS: Tories by just 5.7 over NDP!

Prime Minister Layton? EKOS says maybe. Only the national numbers are out, so I will not update the projection yet, but yeah: C 33.7, N 28, L 23.7. EKOS suggests that its poll implies 131 Conservatives, close to 100 dippers and 69 Liberals - clearly enough for a coalition. When the regional breakdown comes out, I will say whether I agree...

The Bloc is at 6.2% nationally, which probably translates to around 26% in Québec - consistent with other polls. My model suggests that if the NDP gets around 30%, the Bloc would remain a significant political force, perhaps with 30-35 seats. But if the NDP gets around 40%, the Bloc might carry only a dozen seats and be well on its way to extinction.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Not sure what you think...but this has to be the most schizophrenic indecipherable election polling-wise in memory. Some polls show a landslide Conservative majority. Some show the end of one or two parties. Some show the same results as the last election. Now this one shows a potential Jack Layton led government! This is where the old expression about art meeting science when it comes to polling colliding and exploding into a acid driven Walt Disney cartoon lol!!

Andre said...

This one is clearly an outlier. All the others have the Conservative numbers about the same between 38 to 41 % within the margin of error. This poll has them at 33.7 a number no other pollster has shown this election.

Election Watcher said...

Yes, the polls are all over the place. That's why you need seat projections based on careful averaging :)

But if you look at it region by region, there's a fair amount of consistency in Quebec and BC. The sample sizes are so small in the Atlantic and on the Prairies that you expect those numbers to be crazy.

The big puzzle is in Ontario, where some pollsters suggest a 5% gap (EKOS, Angus Reid, Innovative), while others show a 15% gap (Nanos, Ipsos, Environics, Forum), with few in the middle. That's the difference between a minority and a majority!

Anonymous said...

This is not an outlier as far as EKOS is concerned. The Conservatives lost less than 1% over the last poll. The NDP gained 4% and the Liberals lost about 1%. Much as that hyped recent Ipsos poll did not indicate a Conservative surge as all their polls put the Conservatives between 42% to 44%.

Anonymous said...

EKOS says the following

BC - CON 34.9%, NDP 30.4%, LIB 24.5%
AL - CON 57.5%, NDP 18.8%, LIB 17.3%
PR - CON 48.2%, LIB 21.3%, NDP 20.5%
ON - CON 37.7%, LIB 31.1%, NDP 22.8%
QC - NDP 38.7%, BQ 25.2%, CON 14.7%, LIB 13.1%
AT - NDP 34.9%, LIB 29.7%, CON 28.1%

Election Watcher said...

Thanks. I had a new post about 30 minutes ago using these numbers.