Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Nanos: Tories' Lead Down to 9.6, Liberals Ahead in Ontario

Today's Nanos poll shows notable movement in one province only: Ontario, where the Liberals now have a marginal 1.5% lead. This contrasts with a 5.5% deficit yesterday (meaning that the measured change between April 1 and 4 was 3*7% = 21%) and with a 10.5% deficit three days ago. At this point, it would be prudent to assume that much of this is statistical noise, but if it's the start of a new trend, the campaign just got a whole lot more interesting.

Based on this poll alone, the tie in Ontario would allow the Liberals to net 49 seats there and 88 nationally. The Tories would be short of a majority with 145, while the NDP caucus would shrink to 25.

The Tories' slide in the aggregate projection continues:

CON - 150
LIB - 74
BQ - 51
NDP - 33

The average Conservative national lead has dropped to 11.5%.

6 comments:

Progressive Tory said...

The Liberals are up 4% from 2008 and lose seats?

Volkov said...

They're only up 4% in Nanos - this is an aggregate projection, after all, other polls count. Watcher even noted that if you did a projection based on Nanos, the Libs would win 88 seats.

Election Watcher said...

Thanks Volkov - I was just going to reply to Progressive Tory. What you said is exactly right. In the aggregate numbers, I have the Liberals and Conservatives both up by 1%, hence the 11.5% Tory national lead stated in the post. The Liberals lose a few seats because I still have them behind by 8% in Ontario, compared to 5.4% in 2008.

Anonymous said...

Here is my prediction for this weekend:

CONSERVATIVE 35
LIBERALS 31
NDP 18
BLOC 9
GREEN 7

Anonymous said...

I guess that Harper won't get his majority....hmm ....wonder who will be up to replace him.

People are saying he has had 3 shots at it and now it will be time for someone else to give it a try... (Strike 3 your out )

Election Watcher said...

Anonymous 1: If you're predicting Nanos numbers, the 7% for the Greens seems quite optimistic.

Anonymous 2: I'd say that the chances of a Conservative majority, while below 50%, are still non-negligible. Of course, to get his wish, Harper definitely needs to turn his campaign around, or needs a big Ignatieff gaffe. If the Tories keep a strong minority, I don't think they'd push Harper out, but he may leave voluntarily.