Today's Nanos poll shows notable movement in one province only: Ontario, where the Liberals now have a marginal 1.5% lead. This contrasts with a 5.5% deficit yesterday (meaning that the measured change between April 1 and 4 was 3*7% = 21%) and with a 10.5% deficit three days ago. At this point, it would be prudent to assume that much of this is statistical noise, but if it's the start of a new trend, the campaign just got a whole lot more interesting.
Based on this poll alone, the tie in Ontario would allow the Liberals to net 49 seats there and 88 nationally. The Tories would be short of a majority with 145, while the NDP caucus would shrink to 25.
The Tories' slide in the aggregate projection continues:
CON - 150
LIB - 74
BQ - 51
NDP - 33
The average Conservative national lead has dropped to 11.5%.