Today's Angus Reid and Nanos polls show stability in the national Tory-NDP gap (though Angus Reid has the Grits dropping to 19%), but have very different implications due to different regional splits.
Ontario: Angus Reid has the Tory-Liberal gap widening from 7% to 15%, while Nanos has it shrinking from 6.5% to 3.6%. The former gives Harper a good shot at a majority, while the latter puts him nowhere close.
Atlantic Canada: Both polls agree that the Liberals and Conservatives are roughly tied. However, Nanos puts the NDP about 12% behind them, while Angus Reid has the Dippers roughly 20% ahead...
Québec: Nanos suggests that the NDP rise has stopped, and shows a small Liberal rebound. Angus Reid has the Grits flat and the Dippers still going up, now at 45%.
British Columbia: Angus Reid has the NDP up to a statistical tie with the Tories, while Nanos shows no such bump.
Overall, the Liberals plunge in my Ontario polling average, giving 3 seats to the Tories. The NDP picks up 4 seats in Québec, 3 from the Bloc and one from André Arthur. The Dippers also gain a seat from each of the other two parties in NS.
CON - 153
NDP - 92
LIB - 50
BQ - 13
The average Conservative national lead is 8.1%.