Saturday, April 30, 2011

Angus Reid: Tories by 4; Nanos: Tories by 8.4

Today's Angus Reid and Nanos polls show stability in the national Tory-NDP gap (though Angus Reid has the Grits dropping to 19%), but have very different implications due to different regional splits.

Ontario: Angus Reid has the Tory-Liberal gap widening from 7% to 15%, while Nanos has it shrinking from 6.5% to 3.6%. The former gives Harper a good shot at a majority, while the latter puts him nowhere close.

Atlantic Canada: Both polls agree that the Liberals and Conservatives are roughly tied. However, Nanos puts the NDP about 12% behind them, while Angus Reid has the Dippers roughly 20% ahead...

Québec: Nanos suggests that the NDP rise has stopped, and shows a small Liberal rebound. Angus Reid has the Grits flat and the Dippers still going up, now at 45%.

British Columbia: Angus Reid has the NDP up to a statistical tie with the Tories, while Nanos shows no such bump.

Overall, the Liberals plunge in my Ontario polling average, giving 3 seats to the Tories. The NDP picks up 4 seats in Québec, 3 from the Bloc and one from André Arthur. The Dippers also gain a seat from each of the other two parties in NS.

CON - 153
NDP - 92
LIB - 50
BQ - 13

The average Conservative national lead is 8.1%.

5 comments:

The View From Steeltown said...

There is still a lot of volatility, particularly in Atlantic Canada and BC. The differences between those two polls are probably due to the regional margin of error. Angus Reid did not show regional margin of errors so it's hard to say with them.

Anonymous said...

Continue to believe you have the NDP too high, and the Bloc too low, in Q. And the Cons too high in O. But we'll soon see.

Election Watcher said...

I have the NDP 15% ahead of the Bloc in Quebec. If the gap were instead around 10%, the Bloc count would almost double. Lots of volatility there still!

As for Ontario, I think most people will be shocked at how many seats the Tories pick up in the GTA...

Anonymous said...

I think your Quebec numbers for the cons is too high, if you look at the riding polls for Quebec city where all their seats are based around there was only one safe seat, all the other ones including ministers like Cannon and Blackburn are in play.

I see them at between 3 to 5 seats, because of safe seats like former minister Bernier. The Liberals at 24 basically means you are only giving them the Toronto heartland and shutting them out of GTA areas like Brampton, Guelph, Kitchener, Vaughan which either have Liberal incumbents or had close races the last time.

Either way, I am not sleeping on Monday.

Election Watcher said...

I'm comfortable with my GTA projection: it currently shows 20 Liberals (-12), 18 Conservatives (+10) and 4 NDP (+2). EKOS has consistently shown the GTA to be a dead heat in the past week.

I think the Tories have 3 safe seats in Quebec, and 8 in play, though Pontiac and Beauport--Limoilou are probably gone. The remaining 6 are very tight. I have them ahead in 5, but probabilistically, they would win closer to 4, so 7 total in Quebec. It's possible that they fall to 3-5, but I don't think that's the most likely scenario given current numbers.