Thursday, April 21, 2011

Angus Reid: Tories by 10 Over NDP in BC

Angus Reid has released a BC poll, confirming the strength of the Conservatives and the NDP at the expense of the Liberals. At 42%, the Conservatives are almost as high as in 2008, while at 18%, the Grits are down even lower than under Dion. The NDP's 32% is strong, and if borne out on Election Day, would allow them to gain two seats.

In the aggregate projection, this poll moves the NDP closer to additional seats, but doesn't cause any immediate changes:

CON - 150
LIB - 76
BQ - 42
NDP - 39
IND - 1

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

From the polls today, the Conservatives are headed for a majority of the size Chretien enjoyed...

Anonymous said...

Uh, sure.

Bernard von Schulmann said...

The BC poll says to me the Liberals are only safe in one riding in BC, Vancouver Quadra. Btw this Angus Reid is by far the biggest public poll in BC.

On the island, small sample of only 200 or so, the Liberals are at 8%, last election they got 19%

Election Watcher said...

Anonymous 1 and 2: Taking just the 4 national polls today puts the Tories right on the edge of a majority.

Bernard: Based on the projection average, I have V-Quadra and V-Centre as the safest BC seats for the Liberals. Is there a reason why V-Centre is less safe? This article suggests the Greens are in close contention, though I find that hard to believe:

http://www.commonground.ca/iss/238/cg238_Fry.shtml

I'm particularly interested by V-Centre since starting in August, it'll be my new permanent home!

Anonymous said...

I am skeptical about what common ground says about Van Centre. A similar incident happened in the same riding during the 1993 campaign. The NDP candidate said one of her workers heard that the Liberals had an internal poll showing that the NDP candidate was within striking distance of Kim Campbell. In reality, the NDP finished fourth, and Liberal Hedy Fry was the winner then and ever since.

Anonymous said...

It is now very clear: in the west provinces, the cows are the ones with the brains (and the looks).

By Luck we found great oil between Newfoundland and Quebec..now we can sell Alberta to the US...oh wait, it is already done!