Sunday, October 4, 2015

Nanos: Liberals Above 35%, NDP Below 25%

Today's Nanos poll contains more bad news for the NDP: it is below 25% nationally. The Liberals have continued to trend up. The start of strategic shifting? NDP's forceful opposition to TPP alienating centrists? Or simply the negative coverage generated by the bad buzz surrounding NDP trends?

Nanos still has the NDP at 33% in Québec. But this is actually the NDP's lowest point there - Nanos just had it higher than other polls in the past few days. It remains to be seen whether the NDP's down trend in Québec has continued since Friday's TVA debate, but this first bit of data should be dispiriting to NDP supporters.

(For the record, contrary to most anglophone commentators, and like many francophone ones, I did not think that Mulcair did well. He might have structured his arguments effectively, but his tone was arrogant and patronizing. Perhaps part of it is his heavy accent, which might not bother anglophones but can irritate francophones when he adopts a lecturing style as he did on Friday. Still, Mulcair didn't bomb the debate, so it's possible that the NDP will stabilize, but if the NDP actually rebounds, it won't be because of the debate.)

The model is being, well, conservative: it's basically waiting for other pollsters to confirm the continued NDP slide before penalizing it more heavily.

CON - 143 (33.6%)
NDP - 100, -1 (26.1%, -0.1%)
LIB - 91, +1 (29.2%, +0.1%)
BQ - 3 (5.0%)
GRN - 1 (5.1%, -0.1%)

Make no mistake, though: the risks for the NDP are highly asymmetric at this point. At 32% in Québec, it is projected to win 49 seats. With Léger's numbers, where the NDP was at 28%, that seat count drops to 30. It's 4-5 seats per point in Québec alone! So running simulations and taking an average (as opposed to just projecting using a poll average, as I'm doing) would knock the NDP down several seats, making it already virtually tied with the Liberals.

The projection without the turnout adjustment is stable:

CON - 129 (32.0%)
NDP - 105 (26.8%)
LIB - 99 (30.1%)
BQ - 4 (5.0%)
GRN - 1 (5.4%)

Saturday, October 3, 2015

Nanos: Liberals Take 4-Point Lead

The daily Nanos is out, and it's the best poll of the campaign for the Liberals: a 4-point national lead and a 10-point lead in ON. Has the Tory rise crested? It's too early to tell. However, the NDP appears to still be sliding.

The new projection gives:

CON - 143 (33.6%, -0.1%)
NDP - 101, -1 (26.2%, -0.1%)
LIB - 90, +1 (29.1%, +0.1%)
BQ - 3 (5.0%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (5.2%, +0.1%)

Without adjusting for turnout, the projection is:

CON - 129 (31.9%)
NDP - 105 (26.9%)
LIB - 99 (30.0%)
BQ - 4 (5.0%)
GRN - 1 (5.5%)

Mainstreet also published 6 riding polls in ON. Nothing surprising, except that Brampton East is a Liberal/Conservative instead of a Liberal/NDP race. I have no idea if there's any local issue there, but this poll is so far from the projection that it calls for a riding adjustment. Consistent with the adjustments so far, I will change the model in the direction of the poll, but not all the way there. Conservatives +5, NDP -5 in Brampton East. In any case, for now, the riding is Liberal whether one makes a full, partial or no adjustment.

Friday, October 2, 2015

This Week's Trends: Tories Climbed Further, NDP Fell Further, Grits Still Flat

Very simple story this week: last week's trends continued.

The dotted part of the seat projection graph refers to projections made without taking into account regional breakdowns and riding polls. As explained in this post and as can be seen from the graph, the net effect of including them was very small.

The NDP's drop in Québec is responsible for its losses this week. Up to now, these losses have been relatively slow, but if the NDP drops any further, the losses will come fast and furious. The main beneficiaries so far have been the Tories, who are now projected to win 12 seats in Québec, but the Bloc is approaching the zone where it would gain handsomely from a further NDP collapse.

In terms of the popular vote, the Liberals are still hovering around 29% (30% unadjusted), while the NDP has dropped to almost 26% (27% unadjusted). The NDP's focus at this point is probably to close the gap before Thanksgiving. Otherwise, in the last week, there might be strategic movement toward the Liberals.

EKOS: No Big Change from Last Week

This week's EKOS poll is out, and its national numbers mirror those from yesterday's Forum and Angus Reid polls: the Tories lead by about 7 points. However, this is down from 9 points last week, primarily due to their lead over the Liberals in ON shrinking by about two thirds (from 8.4% to 2.6%). So, all in all, today has been an excellent day for the Liberals in ON, and suggests that yesterday's Angus Reid bombshell was an outlier.

The seat projection is unchanged. The projected adjusted vote shares are now:

CON - 33.7%, +0.1%
LIB - 29.0%, -0.3%
NDP - 26.3%, -0.2%
GRN - 5.1%, +0.2%
BQ - 4.9%, +0.1%

Innovative: What Movement?

A new poll by Innovative Research still shows a three-way race. This poll is very much like this morning's Léger poll, except that the NDP held at 34% in Québec (still down 5 from last week's Innovative poll) instead of dropping to 28%. The 9% Liberal lead in ON here (along with the 5% Liberal lead from Léger this morning) essentially neutralizes the Angus Reid poll from yesterday showing the Tories 12% up there.

The Liberals claw back more of the ground lost due to yesterday's Angus Reid poll:

CON - 143, -1 (33.6%, -0.3%)
NDP - 102 (26.5%, +0.1%)
LIB - 89, +1 (29.3%, +0.2%)
BQ - 3 (4.8%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.9%)

This is the closest that the Liberals have been to second place all campaign. At 33% in Québec, the NDP is entering the zone where every point costs multiple seats. So if the NDP drops just a tad more there, we could see the Liberals inch ahead of the NDP in the seat count. (If Léger's right, we're already there.)

Forum has three riding polls in downtown Toronto. No big surprise there: the NDP is slightly ahead in Spadina--Fort York, the Liberals have a slight lead in Toronto Centre, and it's a tight race in University--Rosedale.

Léger: NDP, Bloc, Liberals in a Statistical Tie in Québec; Nanos: Liberals Retake Lead

Yesterday's polls might have been all bad news for the Liberals, but today, it's the NDP's turn to wallow in despair. First, the bombshell: Léger, with a sample of 999 in Québec alone, has the NDP at just 28% there. That's statistically tied with the Bloc and the Liberals, who have 24% each. The other news is that Léger puts the Liberals ahead of the Tories by 5 points in Ontario, in sharp contrast with yesterday's Angus Reid poll. Both polls were conducted online, on exactly the same days...

Today's Nanos poll is fairly stable, though the Liberals' 33.5% national number is the best of any poll this campaign, while the NDP's 25.9% is a new low outside of last week's EKOS.

As expected, the NDP is getting punished in the projection update, while the Liberals recover some of the losses from yesterday:

CON - 144, -1 (33.9%, -0.3%)
NDP - 102, -3 (26.4%, -0.3%)
LIB - 88, +3 (29.1%, +0.4%)
BQ - 3, +1 (4.7%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.9%)

Without the turnout adjustment, it's:

CON - 132 (32.1%)
NDP - 107 (27.1%)
LIB - 95 (29.9%)
BQ - 3 (4.7%)
GRN - 1 (5.2%)

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Angus Reid: Tories Lead by 7, by 12 in Ontario

Angus Reid has published its second poll of the campaign, and it is nothing short of a disaster for the Liberals. The 27% national number is OK, considering that last time, Angus Reid had the Liberals at just 24%, several points lower than other pollsters. The problem is Ontario: this poll has the Tories at 40% there, against just 28% for the Liberals. If that were to bear out on election night, the Liberals would be looking at fewer seats than in 2008. The Tories would be just 15 seats or so short of a majority despite being at only 34% nationally.

The Liberals take a big hit in the updated projection due to Ontario:

CON - 145, +4 (34.2%, +0.3%)
NDP - 105 (26.7%)
LIB - 85, -4 (28.7%, -0.4%)
BQ - 2 (4.6%, +0.3%)
GRN - 1 (4.9%)

The Liberal vote is extremely inefficient, and this puts them 20 seats behind the NDP despite being 2% ahead in the vote.

Forum: Fight for Second; Nanos: Fight for First

Forum has a poll out today, and it's bad news for the Liberals: instead of fighting the Tories for first place, they are fighting the NDP for second. The numbers in BC do look out-of-whack (campaign high of 41% for the NDP and near-low of 21% for the Liberals), but the poll does cast doubt on the narrative that this is now a two-horse race. Indeed, it sides with last week's EKOS in suggesting that the Tories may simply be running away with the election.

Forum also confirms what Nanos is seeing in Québec: the NDP has stabilized around 30-35%. This is a good place for the NDP to stop its slide: the 10 points or so that it lost only cost it about 10 seats. The next 10 points might cost it 30 seats or more.

Nanos, however, still shows the NDP trailing the other parties. It has extreme numbers in BC in the other direction: the NDP is third there.

The new projection is:

CON - 141, +2 (33.9%, +0.4%)
NDP - 105 (26.7%, -0.1%)
LIB - 89, -2 (29.1%, -0.4%)
BQ - 2 (4.3%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.9%, -0.1%)

The Tories are at their pre-campaign goal of 10 seats in Québec, and are at a campaign high nationally. The Liberals are back where they were four weeks ago, with modest gains in Québec and the Atlantic offset by setbacks in Ontario. The NDP continues to be at a campaign low.

Without the turnout adjustment, it's:

CON - 130 (32.2%)
NDP - 109 (27.5%)
LIB - 96 (29.9%)
BQ - 2 (4.3%)
GRN - 1 (5.2%)

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Nanos: Stability Except in Québec

Today's Nanos is out, and it's a dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives. The NDP has fallen slightly further behind, now 6 points behind its competitors. Outside Québec, all parties are within their usual ranges. In Québec, while changes have been small over the past 3 days, the NDP reached a new low (34%), while the Tories and Bloc reached new highs (20%, 19%) in the Nanos nightly tracking.

The new projection shows little change:

CON - 139 (33.5%)
NDP - 105, -1 (26.8%, -0.2%)
LIB - 91, +1 (29.5%, +0.2%)
BQ - 2 (4.2%)
GRN - 1 (5.0%)

Without the turnout adjustment:

CON - 127 (31.8%)
NDP - 109 (27.5%)
LIB - 99 (30.3%)
BQ - 2 (4.2%)
GRN - 1 (5.3%)

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Ipsos/Global: Tories Up, NDP Down; Nanos: Little Change

The latest Ipsos poll for Global confirms the trends that other polls have been indicating: the Conservatives are gaining, while the NDP is dropping.

Last week, Ipsos was an outlier in giving the Liberals a 9-point lead in ON; that has been erased, consistently with other polls showing a Lib/Con near-tie there. So while the Liberal national lead looks good on the surface, this is actually not a good poll for the Grits. As for the NDP, this is their best result in ON (27%) since the 9/9-15 EKOS poll, but Nanos has the NDP relatively low there (21.4%). So the best bet is that the NDP is, in fact, stable in ON, around 24% (unadjusted).

The updated projection gives:

CON - 139, +1 (33.5%, +0.1%)
NDP - 106 (27.0%, -0.2%)
LIB - 90, -1 (29.3%, +0.2%)
BQ - 2 (4.2%)
GRN - 1 (5.0%, -0.2%)

Without the turnout adjustment, it's:

CON - 128 (31.8%)
NDP - 109 (27.7%)
LIB - 98 (30.1%)
BQ - 2 (4.1%)
GRN - 1 (5.3%)