Nanos: Small Conservative Lead

Nanos Research has released its first poll of the year, and it shows a 1.7% Tory lead, which is consistent with the recent poll average. Where Nanos diverges from recent polls, however, is that it has the Greens much lower than other ones (5.6%), and the Liberals (33.9%) and Conservatives (35.6%) much higher. Moreover, in the key battleground of Ontario, the NDP posted a paltry 10.9% in this poll.

(Speaking of the NDP: I join the corus of Canadians wishing Jack Layton all the best in his fight against cancer. I can't help but wonder, though, if this is going to throw off polls in the coming week...)

All this causes a redistribution of seats from the Bloc and the NDP to the Conservatives and the Liberals:

CON - 124
LIB - 104
BQ - 46
NDP - 34

This is tied for the lowest result for the Bloc since the creation of this website. The Bloc is not actually doing that poorly in recent polls - it's just that the Grits' rise is hurting them. Indeed, for the Liberals, this is tied for their highest projection since mid-August; for the NDP, this is tied for the lowest since late October, again on Liberal strength rather than their own weakness.

EKOS: Liberal Edge Continues

This week's EKOS poll has the Liberals 0.9% ahead of the Tories, which is roughly the same result as last week's poll. However, the regional breakdown bears even more good news for the Grits: their lead over the Tories has widened in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, and the Conservative lead in BC has waned. All this leads to another large seat loss for the Tories in the projection, almost all to the Grits' benefit:

CON - 120
LIB - 103
BQ - 48
NDP - 37

All seats are now within one seat of the September 4 projections - exactly 5 months ago, and just before the Liberals' election bravado started destroying their numbers in the polls. Michael Ignatieff is not out of the woods yet, but can now clearly see the light at the end of the tunnel.

At the same time, Stephen Harper must be worried: this projection is the worst for the Tories since the launch of this website in late July, and indeed EKOS hasn't had the Liberals ahead two weeks in a row since late June/early July. He must hope that the Olympic frenzy erases some of the negative feelings toward him that have blossomed lately.

In terms of vote intentions, my poll average now shows a 1.5% advantage for the Tories. It probably needs to invert (or almost) to produce a tie in the seat projection.

Harris-Decima: Tie

Here is the latest Harris-Decima poll. It shows a tie between Grits and Tories over the past 2 weeks. However, we know from some media reports from last week that over Jan. 21-24, Harris-Decima had the Tories 1 point ahead. Thus, they probably had the Liberals ahead over Jan. 28-31. Additionally, the breakdown shows that over the 2 weeks, the Liberals led by 5 points among women, and lagged by 3 among men. So if Harris-Decima showed decimals in their national numbers, the Liberals would probably be slightly ahead over 2 weeks - and hence ahead by about 2 points in the latest week.

The Conservative numbers in this poll were actually par for the course, except in Québec where they scored a dismal 13%. It is that Liberals doing well in the 3 largest provinces that closed the gap: 28% in Québec, 40% in Ontario and 30% in BC. The NDP numbers were on the weak side, but nothing disastrous there; the Bloc did OK as well, with a 10-point lead.

The new aggregate projection is:

CON - 126
LIB - 98
BQ - 48
NDP - 36

The Conservative seat lead shrunk by 6, and now sits at 28. In terms of the effective polling average corresponding to these projections, the Tory lead shrunk by 0.5%, and now sits at 2%. Four pollsters have polled nationally in the second half of January: EKOS and Harris-Decima seem to now have the Grits marginally ahead, while Angus and Ipsos have the Tories with a small lead. It would be interesting to see where The Strategic Counsel and Nanos come down on this...

Angus: Tories Still Lead

Angus Reid has posted the results of a new poll, showing the Tories 4 points ahead of the Liberals. This was a strong poll for the NDP everywhere except on the Prairies, and indeed Angus pegs the Dippers at 19% nationally, a whopping 4.4% more than this week's EKOS. For the Grits, this was a somewhat weak poll, except in Québec, where they posted a respectable 28%. The Tories did OK, if you discount the dismal 11% in Québec: Angus still has them marginally ahead in Ontario. The 42% for the Bloc was a strong showing.

The aggregate projection is little changed, with the small parties gaining 1 seat each, and the big ones losing 1 each:

CON - 128
LIB - 94
BQ - 49
NDP - 37

Interesting note: the BQ and the NDP are exactly back to their 2008 seat count.

You might ask why the Conservative projection dropped even though this poll was relatively favourable to them. The answer is that the recent midpoint date of this poll (Jan. 25.5) caused a decrease in weight of polls from early January, which also had the Tories higher than recent surveys.

EKOS: Liberals Lead!

This week's EKOS results are similar to last week's, but it is now the Liberals that have a small, statistically insignificant lead (0.5%). The poll was strong for the Tories in Atlantic Canada (3.3% lead; small sample size though), and for the Grits in Québec (29.1%) and Ontario (7.6% lead). As a result, both the Conservatives and the Liberals gain a seat in the projection, while the Bloc loses two:

CON - 129
LIB - 95
BQ - 48
NDP - 36

Several news outlets have also reported the national numbers of a recent Harris-Decima poll, which gave a 1-point edge to the Tories (32-31). However, the poll has not been added to the projection due to a lack of regional numbers.

The national poll average corresponding to the above projection shows a 2.5% Conservative lead. Why does it translate into a large 34-seat advantage? (Remember that the Tories won the 2006 election by 6%, but only 21 seats.) There are several reasons, the first two of which explain the difference with 2006:

1. The Ontario gap (the difference between the Lib-Con gap in Ontario and nationally) is quite small: just over 5%. In 2006, it was just under 11%, while in 2004 and 2008, it was about 6%. A large Ontario gap favours the Liberals, while a small one is good for the Conservatives; by my reckoning, 7-8% would be about neutral.

2. Quirks in the 2008 Ontario results: the Tories won just 3 seats by between 1% and 8%, but 10 seats by 8% to 12%. The projected swing is currently 8%. As you can see, the Liberals are approaching the Red Zone (apt expression here, isn't it?). In fact, if my projection accounted for swing uncertainty, the Liberals would take a few seats from the Tories.

3. Québec: Were the Liberals ahead of the Tories by 8% in any other region with 75 seats, it would get an advantage much greater than 8 seats (for example, it would be about 24 seats out of 106 in Ontario, which is 17 seats out of 75 if pro-rated). That doesn't hold in Québec due to the presence of the Bloc. Of course, it's hard to say if the Liberals would actually lead the Conservatives by 8% in Québec if the Bloc were absent...

4. Liberal/NDP split in MB, SK, BC: The Conservative vote is extremely efficient in these regions due to the split. The Tories get about half the seats in BC with just a third of the vote, and almost all the seats in Saskitoba outside Winnipeg with just 45% of the vote. The Liberals cannot do that in any region.

Wasted Tory votes in Alberta act as a counterweight to the 4 points above, but not enough to balance things out. As a result, to pull even in terms of seats, the Liberals probably need a 1-2 point lead in vote intentions.

CROP Québec Poll

Cyberpresse reports the results of a CROP poll giving strong results for the Conservatives and NDP, and a weak one for the Bloc. As a result, the Tories gain a seat from the Bloc in the projection:

CON - 128
LIB - 94
BQ - 50
NDP - 36

New Ipsos Poll

ThreeHundredEight.com has reported on a new Ipsos poll showing a 3-point Conservative lead nationally. Relative to other recent polls, this one was strong for the Liberals in Atlantic Canada and Québec, for the NDP in Saskitoba, and for the Tories in Alberta; Ontario and BC numbers are in line with previous polls.

The upshot is that the Liberals are once again up in the seat projection, though by less than in the 4 previous updates (+4, +5, +6, +5; this time +2):

CON - 127
LIB - 94
BQ - 51
NDP - 36

We are approaching the zone where the outcome of an election held today would be in doubt: with EKOS' Ontario numbers (Liberals leading by 4-7 points over Conservatives) and Ipsos' Québec numbers (Grits at 30%), an election would likely come down to a handful of ridings decided by margins of 3% or less. Of course, it's unlikely that actual public mood reflects the best poll for the Liberals in each region, but the fact is that a month ago, even cherry-picking polls like this would still have landed you in rock solid Conservative minority territory.